Wilson v. The Average

Now that we have relatively advanced statistics regarding the performance of the 2006 SEC pass defenses, we can do a few other things.

For one -- and first and foremost here -- we can compare an individual quarterback's performance versus the average performance of the eight SEC quarterbacks that a particular defense faced in a given year. At bottom, it gives a lot of context to exactly how well a quarterback performed. Raw numbers only tell us, generally speaking, whether or not a player performed well in a game or a season, but comparing their raw numbers to the overall league average tells us not only how well they performed, but how well they performed in comparison to how well other players at the same position performed against those same teams.

So how did John Parker Wilson do as a whole, compared to the overall leave average?

All in all, Wilson's numbers were almost exactly identical to the league average, not really better and not really worse. Being very picky about, Wilson's numbers were generally just a hair below the league average, but by a very small and essentially insignificant amount. All told, Wilson had a higher completion percentage (56.52 for Wilson, to the league average of 56.37), and he also threw for slightly more yards per attempt (7.07 for Wilson, to the league average of 7.00). However, Wilson did have a lower touchdown rate, and a higher interception rate. All told, the combined QB rating of conference opponents against the eight SEC teams we faced in 2006 was 124.3, and Wilson clocked in just a hair below that at 122.4.

In terms of over / under performing the average, Wilson's best day came against LSU in Tiger Stadium. Though LSU held quarterbacks as a whole to under 150 passing yards per game and a completion percentage of lower than 50 per cent, Wilson threw for 291 yards against LSU, and completed 62.8 percent of his passes. Wilson's worst day came, oddly enough, the week before against lowly Mississippi State in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Bulldogs struggled to defend the pass all year long, as opponents, as a whole, completed almost 60 per cent of their passes for over 220 yards per game, with a 3:2 touchdown to interception ratio. As with most other things that day for the Crimson Tide, it didn't quite go as planned. Wilson completed less than 50 per cent of his passes for under 200 yards total, and threw two interceptions against no touchdowns. Given the succession in games, I suppose an outhouse to penthouse reference would be fitting here.

All in all, though, the results are pretty good. Wilson was a first year starter, suffering from poor coaching and likely poor play-calling. Moreover, the offensive line was poor, and the running game was completely ineffective; arguably our worst since 1993. On top of all of that, Wilson played nearly all year with a badly sprained right ankle (i.e. his plant foot). About the only thing that Wilson had going for him in 2006 was a good receiving corps, and while good (Hall was great), after Brown was injured in the Ole Miss game, we never had another solid receiving threat. All told, while the wide receiver corps was pretty good (due to Hall's performance), it was far from extraordinary. Still, despite all of that going against him, Wilson put up average production numbers in 2007. Not a bad showing at all when you consider the circumstances.

It's just another good sign about the ability and potential of our starting quarterback.