Recruiting: 1980-1982

A friend sent me an interesting link yesterday. The link takes you to a PDF file that gives a pretty in-depth analysis of the Alabama recruiting classes from 1980-1982, the last three inked under Paul Bryant.

Click here for the entire thing.

It's pretty interesting stuff, and the overall conclusion has to be that recruiting fell off the final three years under Bryant. Certainly his age was used against him greatly by opposing coaches, and it does seem that there was a drop-off in the overall talent level.

But, then again, maybe not.

Bryant was always a bit of an odd-ball when it came to recruiting, and there is no disputing that. Certainly we signed our fair share of highly-rated recruits, but there was more to it than that. Bryant was also widely known for not even looking twice at recruits that other top schools were drooling over, and he often times went hard after recruits that no one else looked at.

Woodrow Lowe is the perfect example of the latter. Coming out of high school, he received no scholarship offers, and planned to enlist in the Navy. Bryant saw something, though, and offered him a scholarship when even the Sisters of the Poor wouldn't. Of course, Lowe became one of the greatest linebackers in Alabama football history (three-time All-American), and went on to play eleven years in the NFL for the San Diego Chargers.

It's evident in other players, too. Just look at Musso: he was small and slow for a tailback, but Bryant loved him as a player, and he thrived at Alabama in both a pro-style offense and in the wishbone.

Many people have pointed out that, had recruiting been as closely scrutinized then as it is today, most of Bryant's recruiting classes would not have been rated particularly high. And honestly, it's hard for me to disagree with that. At bottom, to a large degree, Bryant went after a lot of players that no one else saw anything in. Players like that were his specialty, and he was very open and honest about that fact. Admittedly, Bryant was often straightforward about the fact that he often times struggled to get the most out of the incredibly talented players. He literally thrived on players who weren't very good but didn't know it.

And it's hard to say that the talent was running out towards the end of the Bryant era. After all, as posted in this forum before, in Bryant's final year we were 5-0 and number one in the country after annihilating eventual national champion Penn State. It was the failure of Bryant's health that got us, not a lack of talent. We may not have had a lot of highly-rated players, and we may have not had a lot of players who went on to great success in the NFL, but you don't do things of that nature without a lot of talent on hand.

What Could Have Been

Some years, you are left with nothing more than thoughts of what could have been. The potential to win big was there, but somehow it just didn't work out. I was racking my brain the other day, and came up with a rough list of a few Alabama teams that could have certainly made the "What Could Have Been" list.

Here goes...

1982: Most people forget just how good this team was. We were high on everyone's list in the pre-season, and we did not disappoint early on. Finally, Penn State and Joe Paterno came to town, and we annihilated the Nittany Lions 42-21. After that, we were 5-0, ranked #1 in the country, and Bryant's seventh national championship was just sitting there for the taking. Unfortunately, Bryant's health failed, and we collapsed over the final weeks, losing to Tennessee, Southern Miss, Auburn, and LSU. Penn State, the same team we beat by three touchdowns earlier in the year, went on to beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and win the national championship. Three months after that victory over the Nittany Lions, Bryant was dead at 69.

1986: Coming off of a 9-2-1 season in 1985, everyone returned for 1986, including Mike Shula, Al Bell, Gene Jelks, Cornelius Bennett, Van Tiffin, and others. Most everyone had us as the favorite to win the SEC, and some had us as outside contenders for the national championship. We got off to a hot start at 7-0, and annihilated Tennessee by 28 points. The following week, we turned into a terrible performance out of nowhere, and Penn State drilled us in Tuscaloosa. Two weeks later, we squandered away a game with stupid penalties and turnovers against LSU, and the season ended with a loss to Auburn where we again largely beat ourselves. We blew out Washington in the Sun Bowl to 28-6 to finish 10-3, but we were major underachievers. Ray Perkins left shortly thereafter.

1988: The 1988 squad finished 9-3, and had a good year, but injuries killed us. Bobby Humphrey came into the year as Alabama's all-time leading rusher, and was considered by many to be the Heisman front runner. He was lost for the year early on with a broken foot against Vanderbilt, and Gene Jelks and David Smith also went down for the season. We went 9-3, losing two close games to LSU and Auburn. The Bayou Bengals won the SEC in Mike Archer's second year, but quite honestly they weren't very good (Miami beat them by 40+), and had the injury bug not hit us so hard, we'd have been SEC Champions and playing in the Sugar Bowl.

1990: Again with the injury bug. We lost three close games to open the season (a combined margin of loss of 8 points), and that set the tone. We rebounded late and played well, but it was largely all for not. Had Siran Stacy not gone down with a season-ending knee injury on the first play from scrimmage in the season opener, we could have won 10 games, and instead an impotent offense doomed us to 7-5, despite a great defense.

1995: The 1995 Alabama squad wasn't as good as in 1994, but it was doomed mainly by poor officiating and the NCAA. We lost to Arkansas when the Hogs scored a game-winning touchdown on a pass that I still swear was trapped, and we lost to Auburn when Curtis Brown's game-winning touchdown pass was ruled out of bounds, though a Post-Herald photograph the following day showed that Brown was indeed in. With better officiating, we end up 10-1. Unfortunately, to make things worse, shortly after the Auburn game the NCAA bans us from post-season play that year, and we end up sitting at home. With better officiating and some leniency from the NCAA (yeah, yeah, I know, snowball's chance on hell on both), we end up 10-1, win the SEC West, and face Florida for the fourth consecutive year in the SEC Championship Game.

2002: We went 10-3 in 2002, but it could have been much better. We lost heartbreakers to two top five teams in the closing seconds, but we were still 10-2 going into the Auburn game. That 10-2 record included blowouts over Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and others. And then Fran left, and we bombed the Iron Bowl. Truth was, that squad had the highest Pythagorean Wins of any team in the SEC in 2002 (even more than Georgia), and it was most likely our best team in the post-Stallings era.

2004: Ah, the ultimate injury year. A piss-poor decision by Mike Shula ended with Brodie Croyle out for the year against Western Carolina, and the injuries only got worse from there. The truth is -- largely due to a much better offensive line -- the 2004 had more potential than the 2005 squad did, but injuries killed it. We finished 6-6 with several close losses, but with better injury luck, we probably end up with 9-10 wins and Mike Shula is still at the Capstone.

High Expectations

As an Alabama fan, you hear it every day. You know, yet another old refrain, "Alabama has too high of expectations." Some people go extreme with that assumption, some even saying we'll fire Saban if he loses a few games or doesn't bring us a national championship in a couple of years. At bottom, it's a corollary of a Bryant criticism, that we somehow expect our coach, whomever he may be, to do as well as Bryant, and if he doesn't he's going to be promptly fired.

But is there any underlying validity to all of those "high expectations" statements, or is just a tired, baseless, and overused assertion for those who want to criticize Alabama?

Well, there is only one way to find out. Let's look at past Alabama coaches since Bryant retired in 1982.

Ray Perkins, of course, succeeded Bryant in 1983. Despite leading Alabama to its first losing season in almost 30 years, Perkins returned and had good seasons in 1985 and 1986. The Alabama fan base was generally pleased with him, and he was not on the hot seat. Perkins left Alabama of his own volition, when he was wooed back to the NFL by Alabama business school graduate and financier Hugh Culverhouse, who was the owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Had Perkins not left on his own, he would have easily held on to the Alabama job for the foreseeable future.

Bill Curry was chosen to replace Perkins, and despite a less-than-solid track record at Georgia Tech, Curry did well at Alabama. He went 26-10 in three seasons, won the SEC in 1989, and was 6-0 against Tennessee and Penn State. Some people -- either out of ignorance or in a lame attempt to re-write history -- like to claim that we ran Curry off after his third consecutive loss to Auburn in 1989, and that is factually wrong. Granted, no one was happy with Curry's 0-3 record against in-state rival Auburn, nor the fact that they ended our undefeated season in 1989 -- and seriously, what half-way decent fan base would be happy with that? -- but the fact remains that Curry was not ran off by Alabama. He was not fired in the month following the loss to Auburn, and actually led the Tide in a close loss to eventual national champion Miami in the Sugar Bowl. Curry was slated to return to be the Tide coach in 1990, but he left for Kentucky over a contract dispute. At the end of the 1989 season, we offered Curry a new contract that contained clauses that he was not happy with (specifically, no raise and removal of his power to hire and fire assistants), and thus he bolted to Kentucky. Bill Curry himself even admitted as much in the book "The Uncivil War: Alabama v. Auburn 1981-1994." You can read for yourself by purchasing the book and reading chapter eight. At bottom, Curry was not "ran off" or fired from Alabama because he didn't meet our supposedly "high expectations." In reality, Curry left of his own volition, when he could have came back to Alabama in 1990, because of a contract dispute with the university.

Gene Stallings was hired after Curry left for Kentucky, and he was wildly successful. In 1996, though, Stallings chose to retire. Some claim that Stallings was ran off, and his "retirement" was just putting a nice face on the situation. That, too, much like the Curry claims, is incorrect. Stallings left of his own accord due to disputes with university president Andrew Sorensen and athletic director Bob Bockrath. Stallings felt that Sorensen and Bockrath were micro-managing the football program -- and of course the passage of time proved Stallings right in the years that followed -- and Stallings felt with excessive administration meddling in his football program, it would simply make for an untenable situation. Stallings was very much in the Bryant mold -- who contractually demanded that he would report to a laissez faire university president and no one else -- and allowing active and excessive meddling in his program by administrators was simply unconscionable to a man like Stallings. As a result, he left of his own accord. Certainly, there were some disgruntled rumblings about Stallings -- watching his much-superior teams squad about wins by a handful of points due to poor offenses was a very frustrating thing to watch, as you would expect -- but the overwhelming majority of the Alabama fan base knew the magnitude of what all Stallings accomplished in his seven years (a national championship and 70 wins), and the fan base was greatly saddened when he announced after the 1996 Iron Bowl that he would be retiring following the bowl game. "High expectations" didn't get Stallings; far from it, in fact.

Dubose came next, and he got more leniency than you could imagine. After a disastrous 4-7 season in 1997, he had a mediocre year in 1998 (close wins in a couple of games we should have lost, namely LSU) before getting annihilated by Virginia Tech in the Music City Bowl. 1999 saw lightning in a bottle, and 2000 was a disaster. And oh yeah, remember the secretary affair scandal, and the losses to Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, and Central Florida? But Dubose, as terrible as he was, did not get fired. Actually, he submitted his resignation to Mal Moore after the third game of the 2000 season (the 21-0 debacle against Southern Miss), and Mal refused to take it at the time, but that was the end of his tenure. Granted, any decent school would have fired him, but the point remains he was never fired because it never came to that. Dubose saw how the job overwhelmed him, and he resigned.

Fran came next, and of course Fran left of his own volition for Texas A&M.

Then it was Shula, who stayed at Alabama for four seasons. In those four years, Shula had one winning season, a combined 1-12 record against Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia, and never finished higher than third in the SEC West. In three of his four seasons, his teams finished forth or worse in the SEC West. Shula was fired by athletic director Mal Moore approximately nine days after the 2006 Iron Bowl loss. In four seasons, his record was just barely .500.

So... that is it? All of these supposed "high expectations" have resulted in one coach fired? Basically, that is what that entire argument -- often repeated as it is -- reduces down to once you actually analyze it.

But what about the firing of Shula? Was that "high expectations," or have other schools done essentially the same thing in similar situations?

Let's look at that, too.

Once you delve into recent SEC football history, you see that many SEC schools have fired coaches within the past decade despite those coaches having won considerably more than what Shula won at Alabama. Let's go through some examples.

Auburn fired Terry Bowden mid-way through the 1998 season, Bowden's sixth on the Plains, after a 1-5 start. In his first five seasons at Auburn, Bowden went 45-12-1, and won 18 consecutive games to start his tenure. In 1997, the year before he was fired, Bowden's Tigers went 10-3 -- including wins over Alabama, Georgia, and LSU -- won the SEC West, came within one point (30-29) of beating Peyton Manning-led Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game, and wrapped up the season with a win in the Peach Bowl over Clemson. Moreover, Bowden led Auburn to -- at the point -- only its second undefeated season, and had a winning record over their two major rivals: Alabama and Georgia.

Georgia fired Jim Donnan at the end of the 2000 season. After inheriting Ray Goff's disaster, Donnan went 5-6 in his first year in Athens. The next four seasons, however, were much more successful, to say the least. From 1997-2000, the year he was fired, Donnan went 35-13, never having fewer than eight wins in a season, and he also racked up four bowl wins in those four years. Donnan was fired in 2000 following back-to-back 8-4 seasons.

LSU fired Gerry Dinardo in 1999 after back-to-back losing seasons. Dinardo took over the Archer / Hallman disaster that saw six consecutive losing seasons at LSU, and did quite well in his first three years. During that span, Dinardo went 26-9-1 and won three consecutive bowl games, quite a feat considering that LSU had only won three bowl games in the twenty-five years prior to Dinardo's arrival. And, his three bowl victories in three seasons is the only time that has ever happened in the history of LSU football. Nevertheless, he was fired.

Florida fired Ron Zook in 2004 after three consecutive winning seasons. All told, in his three seasons, he went 23-15, and made three bowl appearances. Even so, after a 4-3 start to the 2004 season, Zook was fired.

So, as you see, Alabama really didn't do anything out of ordinary when we fired Shula. All told, Shula had a sub-par record in his four years at Alabama, and many other SEC schools the past few years have fired coached who have won considerably more than Shula did. But did we hear about how Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Florida have supposedly ill-fated "high expectations"? Of course not. So why do you constantly hear that with Alabama? Dear Mr. Casual Reader, meet Mr. Double Standard.

Moreover, I should make another point. When Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Florida fired their coaches, their successors all did much better, and that group of replacement hires is comprised of Tommy Tuberville, Mark Richt, Nick Saban, and Urban Meyer. No coach not in that group has won the SEC since Steve Spurrier did it in 2000. Obviously, having high expectations is nowhere near the disaster-guaranteed attribute that most "experts" and fans believe it to be.

Putting it all together, it seems that the argument of "high expectations" has no validity whatsoever. Though it may be repeated ad nauseum, it is nevertheless wholly untrue. Just because people swore for centuries that the world was flat did make it flat, and the same reasoning structure applies here. Certainly you must win and win big in order to remain the head coach at Alabama, but with the massive amount of resources poured into college football these days, that is true at any top Division 1-A program. The old Bryant saying, "Be good or be gone" certainly applies big-time modern day college football. However, there is not even one tiny scintilla of evidence that would even remotely suggest that we have unduly high expectations that are far out of line of what is expected with other top programs.

At bottom, as is the same with the "Bear Is Dead" argument, the whole "high expectations" argument is patently absurd, and really only reflects upon the idiocy of whomever is making the argument.

"Bear Bryant Is Dead"

As an Alabama fan, you usually hear the old refrain, "Bear Bryant is dead." The gist is that well, Bear Bryant is dead, and with him gone Alabama football is nothing special. Moreover, it also implies that we fell apart after Bryant, with us doing very little since he left, and none of the foregoing has any validity.

Let us go deeper and re-visit the past 25 years.

The departure of Bryant could not have had worse timing, and could not have been more surprising. In 1978 and 1979, we were national champions. 1980 brought another incredible year that had us contending for a national championship, and though 1981 was a bit of a down year -- as expected -- we still won 9 games, and Bryant won 315. Then came 1982. Many thought Bryant would win his seventh national championship, and early on that seemed valid. We started out 4-0, and then highly-ranked Penn State and Joe Paterno came to Legion Field. As great as that team was, they were no match for the man under the houndstooth hat. The Tide dominated Penn State day, and won by three touchdowns. After the Nittany Lion massacre, we were 5-0, #1 in both polls, and on track for yet another national championship.

And then it all fell apart. Bryant's health suddenly failed, and he struggled just to get through his day-to-day coaching activities. It showed on the field. The season crashed and burned with losses to Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and Southern Miss. Penn State, the team that was annihilated by Alabama, went on to beat Hershel Walker and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and finished as national champions. Less than a month after the season ended, Bryant was dead.

Again, it couldn't have been worse timing, and it could not have been more surprising. Most were expecting another national championship, and the end result was not even imaginable.

Despite the difficult situation, however, we did quite well in the years following Bryant's death.

Ray Perkins was hired to replace Bryant (though he was not Bryant's choice), and in 1983 we went 8-4 and won the Sun Bowl. 1984 was a major disappointment, largely due to injuries (Kerry Goode), as we went 5-6, our first losing season in almost thirty years. Still, even in that year, we racked up wins over Penn State and Auburn. 1985 was a good year, with the Tide going 9-2-1 and winning arguably the best Iron Bowl ever. The season ended with a blowout win over USC in the Sun Bowl. 1986 was another good year, with the Tide winning 10 games and blowing out Washington in the Sun Bowl.

1987 saw the arrival of the Bill Curry, and it was a bit of a disappointing year. We went only 7-5 -- despite wins over Penn State, Tennessee, and LSU -- and lost a close game to Michigan in the Hall of Fame Bowl. 1988 was an improvement, going 9-3, with wins over Tennessee, Penn State, Texas A&M, and Army in the Sun Bowl. 1989 was the breakout year, as we went 10-0 before losing to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Still, we finished 10-1, won the SEC, and lost by eight points in a close game to national champion Miami in the Sugar Bowl.

1990 marked the arrival of Gene Stallings, and despite terrible injury luck (Siran Stacey tore his ACL on the first play from scrimmage in the season opener), we still went 7-5 with wins over Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn, and an appearance (albeit a very disappointing one) in the Fiesta Bowl. 1991 saw the Tide go 11-1, win the Blockbuster Bowl, and finish in the final top five. In 1992, of course, we went undefeated and won a national championship. 1993 saw nine more wins, and a bowl win in the Gator Bowl over North Carolina. 1994 ended with a 12-1 record, the sole loss coming by one point to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and a win over Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl. 1995 saw nine wins, and 1996 ended with another ten-win season, and a bowl win over Michigan in the Outback Bowl.

At bottom, the fourteen year stretch from 1983-1996 was pretty successful for Alabama, even considering our lofty accomplishments. In those 14 years, we had 13 winning seasons with 12 bowl appearances (would have been 13, but in 1995 we were banned from bowl play) and those 12 bowl appearances netted 9 bowl wins. Moreover, we racked up two SEC championships and one national championship, and won over 75% of our games in that 14-year stretch. We had six seasons of 10+ wins, and nine seasons of 9+ wins, and we averaged over nine wins per year. Moreover, in that stretch, we had a 7-7 record against Auburn (in arguably the greatest stretch in the history of Auburn football), a 4-2 record against Georgia, a 9-4-1 record against LSU, and an 8-5-1 record against Tennessee.

Even with Bryant gone, we did very well in the fourteen years following his departure.

It wasn't until 1997, with the hiring of Mike Dubose, that we began to struggle. Unfortunately, the Dubose hiring and the NCAA sanctions doomed us to a poor decade -- well, poor for us, anyway -- from 1997-2006, but all of that had absolutely nothing to do with Bryant. Saying that the Bryant departure was any way related to the struggles from 1997-2006 is about like saying that the Herbert Hoover presidency was related to World War II. There's just no legitimate causal link between the two occurrences.

The truth of the matter is that since the early 1920's, we have been the example of consistent high-quality performance on the football field. Hell, we had three national championships before Bryant even arrived at Alabama as a player, and we continued to do very well in the 20 years after Bryant left. Only the three years of Ears Whitworth saw the Crimson Tide struggle greatly. But after that, Bryant returned, which led 25 years of sheer and utter dominance, and even after he left we had another 14-year stretch of very good football. It's just we've had a rough-for-us ten year stretch from 1997-2006, and nothing more.

At bottom, the whole "Bear Bryant is dead" argument is patently absurd, and really only reflects upon the idiocy of whomever is making the argument.

Scary Similarity: Shula and Stovall

When Mike Shula was fired days after the 2006 Iron Bowl, the national response was effectively, "Alabama has too high of expectations, and they shouldn't have fired Shula." Many of those making this argument, though certainly not all or even a majority, were the LSU fans. In reality, though, Mike Shula's tenure at Alabama was almost exactly like Jerry Stovall's tenure at LSU. In fact, they are almost so similar that it's a bit scary.

Jerry Stovall was hired in January of 1980 after the tragic death of Bo Rein. After having success at North Carolina State, LSU selected Rein to be the successor to long-time LSU coach Charlie McClendon. However, as the fates would have it, Rein died on January 10th of 1980 when his plane, returning to Baton Rouge from a recruiting trip to Shreveport, apparently lost internal pressure, causing both Rein and the pilot to go unconscious, and the plain ultimately crashed off the Eastern seaboard in the Atlantic Ocean. Needing an emergency hire in a desperate situation, LSU tapped one of its own former players. It wasn't that LSU really wanted Stovall, otherwise they would have hired him in the first place, but he was the best they could do given a difficult situation.

Mike Shula was hired in May of 2003 after Mike Price was fired as a result of his lack of discretion on a night that included a pit stop at the Arety Angel's strip club. At that point, in the midst of probation, Alabama had to make an emergency hire in a desperate situation, and had to tap into its own alumni base. As a result, Mike Shula was selected to be the man at the Capstone. It wasn't that Alabama really wanted Shula, otherwise they would have hired him instead of Price, but he was the best they could do given a difficult situation.

Jerry Stovall was a legendary player at LSU. He was the successor to Billy Cannon, and in 1962 he made the All-America team, and finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting. Only the dazzlings of Oregon State's Terry Baker kept Stovall from hoisting the Heisman at the Downtown Athletic Club.

Mike Shula was a legendary player at Alabama. Although he was never in the league of predecessors such as Starr, Namath, and Stabler, Shula was known for his gutsy play and his legendary comebacks. His last-minute miracle comeback to set up Van Tiffin's 52-yard game winning field goal in the 1985 Iron Bowl will forever be etched in the annals of Alabama football history.

Jerry Stovall, upon taking the LSU job, had no head coaching experience. After Stovall's NFL playing career ended, he became an assistant, and was ultimately an offensive assistant on Charlie McClendon's staff.

Mike Shula, upon taking the Alabama job, had no head coaching experience. After Shula gave up playing football, he moved to coaching and spent the entire time before coming to Alabama as an offensive assistant.

Jerry Stovall had very mixed results in his first two seasons in Baton Rouge. In 1980, he did relatively well, given the circumstances, and went 7-4. In the second season, however, things fell apart, and Stovall went 3-7-1. All told, in his first two years, he only had a winning percentage of roughly 47%

Mike Shula had very mixed results in his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa. In 2003, things went poorly with several close losses, and he went 4-9. The following year, he did relatively well, given the circumstances (tons of injuries), and went 6-6. All told, in his first two years, he had a winning percentage of only roughly 40%.

Jerry Stovall finally found big success in his third season in Baton Rouge. Carrying an undefeated 7-0-1 record late into the season, LSU and Stovall was finally knocked off in a three point loss at the hands of Mississippi State. Shortly thereafter, LSU suffered a disappointing loss to in-state rival Tulane in the last game of the regular season. Nonetheless, though, LSU played in the Orange Bowl, and though they lost a close game to Nebraska, Stovall was nationally lauded for having a great season and putting LSU football back on the map after several years of relative mediocrity.

Mike Shula finally found big success in his third season in Tuscaloosa. Carrying an undefeated 9-0 record late into the season, Shula and Alabama was finally knocked off in a three point loss at the hands of LSU. Shortly thereafter, Alabama suffered a disappointing loss to in-state rival Auburn in the last game of the regular season. Nonetheless, though, Alabama earned a berth in the Cotton Bowl, and beat Texas Tech in a close game. Shula was nationally lauded for having a great season and putting Alabama football back on the map after several years of relative struggles.

Following a successful 1982 campaign, the expectations were quite high for Stovall and his Fighting Tigers in 1983. After a decent start, things soon imploded, and a losing season was guaranteed after a close loss to the Billy Brewer-led Ole Miss Rebels, and another close loss to Alabama in Tiger Stadium. At the end of the year, Stovall was fired. All told, Stovall had a 22-21-2 record at LSU, with a 51.1% winning percentage.

Following a successful 2005 campaign, the expectations were quite high for Shula and his Crimson Tide in 2006. After a decent start, things soon imploded, as the Tide was beaten by quality opponents, and narrowly squeaked by horrible opponents. At the end of the year, Shula was fired. All told, Shula had a 26-23 record at Alabama, with a 53.0% winning percentage.

Long story short, it's really just scary how similar Stovall's tenure at LSU was to Shula's tenure at Alabama. Considering LSU fired Stovall in almost exactly the same situation, they should be the last ones to accuse Alabama of high expectations for firing Shula.

Pythagorean Projection: Alabama Football

The Pythagorean Projection is an approximation of how many games a particular team should have won in a particular season that is determined solely by focusing on points scored and points allowed. First created by revolutionary baseball thinker Bill James, the Pythagorean Projection has been equated to many other sports, such as football and basketball.

The basic formula for the Pythagorean Projection is as follows:



For football, the basic formula remains relatively the same. However, Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc. found that for football, the best exponent is not 2, but 2.37, so the formula is slightly tweaked for football.

But what all does it mean? If a team wins fewer games than its projection said it should have, that team underachieved, and if a team wins more games than they should have, that team underachieved. But exactly what does that mean? Well, the Projection can mean different things to different people, but it is generally accepted that, more than anything else, Pythagorean Projections are mainly an indicator of lucks. Teams that overachieve are said to be "lucky" and teams that underachieve are said to be "unlucky." And truthfully, that's probably the foremost thing we should take from this. However, baseball researchers have found two other variables that have an impact besides luck: coaching decisions and bullpen depth. Obviously, there's no bullpen in football, but that could be construed as a measure of overall team depth, and obviously coaching decisions come into play.

So how has the Crimson Tide stacked up in terms of the Pythagorean Projection the past few years? Let's have a look-see.





To begin with, I should note that I only analyzed eight games in most seasons, and only seven in 1990 and 1991. Why only analyze seven or eight games when you play eleven or twelve regular season games? The reason I did so was because I found that when you look at all games played, the Pythagorean Projection seems to be a bit inflated, as teams never seem to win as many games as they should have. Something didn't seem right to me when I ran the numbers that way, and then it suddenly dawned on me that the reason it was happening because all of the weak opponents an SEC program will play in a season. For example, you play Division 1-AA Western Carolina, and you win 52-0, and suddenly your Pythagorean Projection shoots up dramatically. But why should you get credit for beating an East Popcorn State? In MLB, where the Pythagorean Projection has its roots, you don't have East Popcorn States because all MLB teams only play other MLB teams, where the talent levels are much closer, and as a result the Projections are much more accurate. Obviously, if you started counting results from when the Chicago White Sox play the Birmingham Barons, the projections would lose a good bit of their accuracy, and that is essentially what happens when a team like Alabama plays Western Carolina.

So, to get around all of that, I used solely regular season conference games. As a result, the Projections became much more accurate. And hence why there are only seven and eight conference games. Since 1992, the SEC has played eight regular season conference games, and seven were the norm before the expansion of the SEC in 1990 and 1991.

So what do we see about the Crimson Tide?

I noticed that some of the teams that I felt really underachieved were actually some of the ones that underachieved in the Pythagorean Projection. Just to name a few...

• 1990: You never hear it mentioned, but in actuality the 1990 defense allowed exactly as many points as the 1992 defense. The offense, though, really struggled with a tough schedule and injuries. Siran Stacey, the star of the offense, went out for the year with a torn ACL on the first play from scrimmage in the season opener against Southern Miss, and that really turned the Tide offense stagnant. As a result, the Tide lost narrow games against Georgia and Florida (Spurrier's first year) when the offense couldn't get it going.
  

• 2000: The 2000 team underachieved quite a bit, obviously. Some people think of that season as a pure disaster, and it was, but people often forget just how close we were to winning several games. We lost in Fayetteville to Arkansas when two very controversial penalties kept their game-winning drive alive, lost to Central Florida by two points, and lost to LSU in Baton Rouge by two points.
  

• 2004: The 2004 season was, in a lot of ways, a clone of the 1990 season. The torn ACL by Brodie Croyle basically ended the season, and we lost a ton of close games due to an impotent offense. In both years, atrocious offensive output spoiled great defensive efforts.
  

The same goes for a few of the overachievers:

• 1991: Stallings' second squad went 11-1, but even I questioned how good we were during that time. In the second game of the season, we were annihilated 35-0 in Gainesville by Florida, in what is still the most dominating performance I've ever seen against an Alabama squad. From there, we had a ton of squeaker wins, such as a five point win over 9-3 Tennessee, a six point win over 7-5 Mississippi State (Danny Woodson's last game, I believe), a three point win over 5-6 Memphis, a seven point win over 5-6 Auburn, and a six point win over 8-3-1 Colorado. We were a good team that year, but you don't win that many close games without a good bit of luck on your side.

• 1994: Going into the 1994 SEC Championship Game, we were 11-0 and 3rd in the country. But we probably weren't that good, to be brutally honest. We looked sloppy in a 17-7 win over Vanderbilt, and Arkansas gave us trouble in Fayetteville, as we won only 13-6 over a 4-7 Danny Ford team. It took a career night from Jay Barker, at home, and luck from the Field Goals Gods on a Michael Proctor kick late in the first half for us to pull out a narrow 29-28 victory over a 6-4-1 Georgia team. We won two road games by a combined four points against solid Mississippi State and Tennessee teams. Finally, we held on to beat Auburn in the closing seconds after their furious comeback ended when Frank Sanders was stopped inches short on a 4th and 6. Again, you just don't do something like that without a good bit of luck on your side.
  

• 1999: The 2000 collapse shocked everyone, but should have really shocked no one. We had a projection of a mere five wins in 1999, yet went 7-1 in conference play and won the SEC. The 1999 season, all together, was full of close wins. After squeaking by Arkansas, the Gators had us beat in Florida until we got very lucky with a muffed Florida punt return with under two minutes to go and the Extra Point Gods decided to shine on us twice in overtime. A week later, it was another narrow win over a solid Ole Miss team, led by Deuce McAllister and Romero Miller. After a loss to Tennessee, we faced LSU, a team in the midst of a seven-game losing streak that had blown blown out by the likes of Kentucky, yet we needed a time-expiring Goal Line stand to beat the hapless Dinardo-led Bayou Bengals, in Bryant-Denny. Two weeks later, we trailed Auburn for three quarters, and pulled out a victory only after a dumb play call by Tommy Tuberville great play by Kindal Moorehead to sack Ben Leard for a safety after Auburn held on fourth and goal, and Shaun Alexander re-emerged for the first time in weeks to run wild on the Auburn defense in the last stanza. Long story short, it shouldn't have surprised many that we fell apart in 2000, it was a wonder all along that we won that many games in 1999.
  

A few other notes...

As noted earlier, bullpen depth seemingly changes the difference between actual and expected wins, so you would think overall team depth in football would do the same. So what about when we were on probation? In 1997-1999, the years most thought would be the worst from the probation era, we overachieved twice in three years. On the other hand, from 2004-2006, the years most thought would be the worst from the second probation era, we underachieved three straight years.

Also as mentioned earlier, the quality of coaching decisions can change the difference between actual and expected wins. Unfortunately for former coach Mike Shula, in his four seasons, we underachieved all four years. Maybe the baseball people have it right when it comes to coaching. After all, luck is probably a big part of the Pythagorean Projection, but I'm sure it's not the only variable.

The 2002 squad really was a great one. Although we lost to Georgia in a narrow game at Bryant-Denny (without our starting quarterback), we actually had more Pythagorean Wins than the Dawgs did in the 2002 season. It just reinforces the fact that we all missed out on a great SEC Championship game. And although it shows the 2002 team as underachieving (we had a projection of roughly seven wins, but won only six), I wouldn't look at them as underachievers. We had a projection of seven wins, and going into the Auburn game we had six wins, coming off of a 31-0 blowout of LSU in Tiger Stadium. Long story short, we were on pace to nail the projection... and then Dennis Franchione decided he was going to be an Aggie, and missed team meetings all week. The lack of preparation resulted in an Iron Bowl loss, and that caused us to underachieve. But did we really? Not in my book.