Wilson Turnovers: How Costly Were They?

John Parker Wilson pleasantly surprised nearly everyone in 2006, and his play was generally lauded by nearly everyone. Despite being the pleasant surprise, however, Wilson did turn the ball over quite a bit in 2006, throwing eight interceptions in the eight conference games, with four fumbles lost. And, it takes no in-depth analysis to figure out that turnovers are deadly to your team's chances of winning.

But, of course, all turnovers are not created equal.

Despite early football research (The Hidden Game of Football, by Pete Palmer and Bob Carroll) indicating that the value of a turnover had a fixed points value, regardless of where it occurred on the field, later research showed that the value of a turnover increases when you get closer to the end zones, and decreases when you get closer to mid-field. It doesn't matter if you turn it over near your own goal line, or near your opponent's goal line, because it is costing you points either way; where you turn it over in that sense only influences whether you will lose points based off of you scoring less, or your opponent scoring more. All told, the value of a turnover, based on research from Football Outsiders, varies from 3.8 points to 4.25 points, depending on the field position of where the turnover occurs.

A variety of other factors can also greatly affect the value of a turnover, including the time remaining in the game when it occurred, who was leading and by how much, and how far the turnover was returned by the defense, just to name a few.

So, exactly how costly were the eight Wilson interceptions and four fumbles in conference play in 2006? Let's look at each interception and fumble, one-by-one, to get a better look.

For the interceptions...

1. Wilson was intercepted once in the Vanderbilt game. It occurred in the second quarter, on a first and ten, and we had the ball at our own 34. Vanderbilt, after a zero yard return, took over at their own 47 yard line.
   
2. In a 0-0 game in the first quarter against Florida, we were in Florida territory at the 34, facing a 3rd and 8. Wilson's pass was intercepted by Ryan Smith, who returned it 29 yards to the Alabama 47.
   
3. Trailing Florida 14-13 with 8:30 to go in the fourth quarter, Wilson was intercepted by Ryan Smith on 2nd and 10. The interception gave Florida the ball at the Alabama 34, and set up a touchdown that put the Gators up 21-13.
   
4. Trailing Florida 21-13 with 4:30 to go, we had the ball, 2nd and 10, at the Florida 46, driving in an attempt to score a game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion. Wilson was intercepted after his pass sailed high over the head of Keith Brown into the arms of Reggie Nelson, who raced 70 yards for a Florida touchdown, putting the Gators up 28-13, and effectively ending the game.
   
5. Trailing Mississippi State 17-10 with three minutes to go in the second quarter, we had the ball 2nd and 8 at the Alabama 47, and Wilson was intercepted by Quentin Culbertson, who returned the interception for a touchdown, giving MSU a 24-10 lead.
6. Trailing LSU 28-14 with 3:15 to go in the third quarter, we had the ball 3rd and 12 from LSU 23, desperately needing a conversion to bring the game within one possession. Wilson fired down the field and was intercepted by Chevis Jackson.
   
7. Trailing Auburn 22-15 with less than a minute to go, we had the ball 2nd and 7 at our own 44. Wilson looked to his right and threw the ball, where it was intercepted at the Auburn 38 by David Irons, which ended the Iron Bowl and ultimately the Mike Shula era.
   

Now for the fumbles:

1. Tied 10-10 with Arkansas in the third quarter, we had the ball 3rd and 13 at the Arkansas 48. Arkansas made the perfect blitz / coverage call, and Wilson was doomed from the start. Instead of taking the sack, Wilson tried to stay in the pocket and make a player, where he was hit. The ensuing fumble was scooped up by Randy Kelly and returned 39 yard for an Arkansas touchdown; Arkansas 17, Alabama 10.
   
2. Trailing LSU 21-14 in the closing seconds of the first half, we had the ball 1st and goal at the LSU 8. We were looking for a touchdown to go into halftime tied, or at least a field goal. On first down, however, Wilson was sacked by Daniel Francis and fumbled. LSU recovered, and ran out the clock on the first half.
   
3. Leading Auburn 3-0 with the ball 3rd and 6 at our own 25, Wilson was sacked by Quentin Groves. A fumble ensued, which Auburn recovered, and that led directly to an Auburn touchdown, 7-3 Auburn lead.
   
4. Trailing Auburn 7-3, two Alabama offensive plays after the previous sack and fumble, Wilson was sacked on a 2nd and 16 from the Alabama 14 by Quentin Groves. Another fumble ensued, Auburn again recovered, and that led directly to another Auburn touchdown, 14-3 Auburn lead.
   

So what are we to take from Wilson's turnovers in 2006? I'd say three things.

One, Wilson did turn the ball over entirely too much in 2006. All told, he had eleven turnovers in eight conference games, and that is simply entire too many. By comparison, in 2005, Brodie Croyle had only two turnovers in eight conference games, and both of those came in the Mississippi State game. Granted, Croyle's turnovers in 2005 are very much at the lower end of the turnover spectrum, but nevertheless they do highlight the value that can be found in limiting turnovers. The 2005 offense was terrible, no two ways about it, but Croyle did protect the football and thus didn't give away points in that sense. Wilson couldn't replicate Croyle in 2006, and that was a large reason 10-2 crashed into 6-7.

Two, Wilson's turnovers, when they did occur, were extremely costly to the team. Ten of Wilson's eleven turnovers came when we were either tied in a game or trailing in a game, and that is nothing short of brutal. Turnovers are killers regardless of when they occur, but if you turn the ball over when you are tied or behind, it can really just end your chances of winning, which it did with us on many occasions in 2006. Moreover, the majority of Wilson's turnovers either occurred outside of the area between the thirties, and three led directly to touchdowns for the opposing defense. And, Wilson's interceptions were generally returned for a lot of yards, with opponents averaging around 20 yards per return. There are no two ways about it, though turnovers are generally costly, the majority of turnovers committed by Wilson were extraordinarily costly to the Tide.

Three, it is up for Wilson to improve. Many blamed the fumbles on the offensive line -- particularly in the Iron Bowl in the case of Chris Capps -- but at the end of the day, the ultimate responsibility falls upon Wilson to protect the football. It does not matter if all five offensive lineman decide to scratch their privates instead of block the defensive linemen, it is still up to Wilson to protect the football. He should see the situation, and secure the football. If he has to take a sack, then so be it. Not doing so is a failure upon Wilson's part, not the offensive line, and it is a particularly damning failure when the oncoming defender -- as was the case with Quentin Groves in the Iron Bowl -- is well within Wilson's line of sight.

I do not believe that we should be overly critical of Wilson, mind you. He did have a solid season in 2006, and did quite well. And he was a sophomore, a first-year starter, and it is essentially a given with quarterbacks of that nature that they will commit several costly mistakes early on their careers, and Wilson was no different. The point of it all is that -- and the analysis says essentially this -- Wilson hurt his team quite badly in 2006 with turnovers, and that he must improve that in the 2007 season if we are to have the success that we all want, whether it be as an offense or as a team.

Beyond completions, attempts, and touchdowns, perhaps the thing most should keep their eye on this season with regard to John Parker Wilson is turnovers.