Inventing A New Metric: Strength of Schedule

Most of the mainstream statistics, often quoted as they may be, are generally worthless in terms of evaluating the true quality of football teams. And no statistic is more worthless than the one generally used to tabulate strength of schedule.

Here's a list of strength of schedule in 2006, but don't even waste your time clicking the link, it's not worth the time. When strength of schedule is tabulated, how do they do it? Elementary style, that's how. They just add up the cumulative records of a team's individual opponents, do that for every team, and then rank each team based on opponent's winning percentage. At bottom, it's first grade logic mixed with third grade math.

There are just so many things wrong with that approach.

To begin with, teams with equal records are, in fact, not equal. That's a rather simple insight, but nevertheless it is something that the traditional strength of schedule tabulation does not take into consideration. For example, last year the USC Trojans and the TCU Horned Frogs both went 11-2, but is there really any doubt as to who was the far superior team? Of course not, but even so, both teams count the exact same in strength of schedule.

Beyond that, a few outlier teams can drastically sway a team's strength of schedule ranking when using the traditional tabulation. Take Notre Dame in 2006, for example. Critics argued that the Irish weren't particularly good and mainly won ten games because of a weak schedule. Notre Dame defenders, however, quickly pointed to the fact that the Irish schedule wasn't really that bad, and was in fact the 39th toughest out of the 120 FBS teams when using the traditional tabulation. But that's an incomplete response at best. Even if you use the traditional tabulation, once you break it down even further it's a poor argument. In reality, Notre Dame's ten wins came over teams with a combined record of 56-67 (.459 winning percentage). On the other hand, their three losses came against teams with a combined record of 31-5 (.861 winning percentage). At bottom, Notre Dame beat up on combination of the Sisters of the Poor and some mediocre teams, and then were annihilated when they faced good teams. The underlying reality is that you can have a poor schedule as a whole, but play a couple of really good teams and that will sway your strength of schedule rating into looking pretty solid.

Moreover, what about those other odd-ball things that affect games, like injuries? Obviously, those aren't accounted for, but they should be. Take Tennessee in 2006 for example. In a critical stretch (against LSU and Arkansas), Erik Ainge was injured. Now obviously, Tennessee was a much easier opponent without their star quarterback on the field, but in terms of strength of schedule, they go in the books as a 9-4 team regardless of it you faced Ainge or his back-up Johnathon Crompton. Obviously that's not right.

At bottom, without going into further detail, we really need to invent a new metric for determining strength of schedule simply because the current one is effectively meaningless, and because strength of schedule is highly important.

Nothing is concrete as of this minute, but I'm trying to come up with something for the 2007 season.

At the moment, though, I have a few ideas for how the system would work:

• Division 1-AA teams would not count in any way whatsoever.
  

• Non-BCS teams would count, but to a significantly smaller degree. For example, an 11-2 TCU team would not count as much as an 11-2 USC team.
  

• Significant injuries (such as to a quarterback) will make a particular team count less in terms of strength of schedule

• Expand the data by looking at not just wins and losses, but more advanced statistics such as Pythagorean Wins and the like.
  

We'll see as the 2007 season progresses.

2007 Defense: Expect The Unexpected

Ten years ago, Mary Schmich penned a fine column for the Chicago Tribune, and in it dispensed the following advice:

"Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind; the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday."

All told, that's good advice for life in general. But it's also pretty good advice for the game of football as well.

Often times, you should expect the unexpected. The things you think will be major problems often times never come to fruition, and things you never think about suddenly pop up and cause havoc.

Take our team in 2006, for example.

Going into the season, everyone knew that the running game would be fine and that the offensive line would play much better, but the real concern was at quarterback with John Parker Wilson. As it turned out, though, Ken Darby showed up overweight and out of shape, which resulted in a poor running game, the line continued to struggle, and John Parker Wilson had a solid year. On defense, despite key losses, people thought that Ramzee Robinson would anchor a good secondary, Terrance Jones would step in and adequately replace the out-going Demeco Ryans, Juwan Simpson would blossom in full, and the real concern was at middle linebacker. As it turned out, of course, Robinson struggled greatly against every quality receiver he faced and the secondary was relatively poor. Terrance Jones was a shell of Demeco Ryans, and that was when he was healthy, Juwan Simpson had a poor year as both a player and a leader, and the main pre-season, concern, middle linebacker, turned into the best player on the entire defense with the rise of Prince Hall.

And now we are here with the 2007 season just 17 days away, and nearly everyone cites the defense as a major concern. Generally speaking, the argument is that the front seven is in major trouble, but the secondary will be very strong.

As they say, though, expect the unexpected. Don't be surprised if the exact opposite of what is expected unfolds in 2007.

The front seven, surprisingly enough, has the potential to be a good, solid unit. I know you hear all of the doom and gloom, but it's nonetheless true. Just follow me.

At defensive end, we are pretty strong. Wallace Gilberry is a four-year starter, and one of the better pure defensive ends in the conference. He is experienced, and plays with as much as heart as you will see from anyone. Moreover, with the right scheme, he can rush the passer, and is a very good defender against the run, something that can't be said of a lot of the more glamorous defensive ends in this conference. Bobby Greenwood will start opposite Gilberry, and he too is a good player. He is very talented, no doubt there, has good size and he has looked well in Fall practice. This is the same guy who made several freshman All-America teams, don't forget that.

At linebacker, it's actually a surprisingly strong group.

Prince Hall returns, and he was a beast a year ago. Honestly, he was the best player on our defense as a redshirt freshman, and he played most of the year overweight and out of shape. As Coach Kines said, he was about a biscuit away from putting his hand on the ground (i.e. moving to defensive end). For 2007, however, Hall has dropped about twenty pounds and is in noticeably the best condition he's been in since he arrived at the Capstone. Better conditioning and a year of experience should only make Hall an even better player.

Rolando McClain is a true freshman, but it is not absurd to expect good things out of him. Physically, he is about as gifted of an athlete as you will find. He is massive (6'4 and 255 pounds), but is also very athletic. Moreover, he's a smart kid, and an extremely hard worker. Beyond that, he is impressing everyone in Fall camp thus far. In fact, yesterday Nick Saban even specifically praised McClain at length, and any time the Nicktator doles out praise to anyone, you should take notice. You almost feel wary of saying it this early in his career, but objectively speaking, McClain has legitimate NFL caliber talent. He's young, but he will start and should be productive.

Zeke Knight will start at outside linebacker, and he too has loads of talent. The truth is, Zeke Knight is one of the most talented players on the entire roster. He's very big, strong, and quick. He was a top-notch recruit out of high school, and could have played for anyone. And now he's finally where he should have been all along: linebacker. Moreover, for the first time in his career, he's healthy now that the heart murmur has been corrected. He, too, has looked good in Fall practice, and a productive year, at the very least, can be expected from him. And honestly, given his freakish athletic abilities, Knight could very well turn into a playmaker.

Keith Saunders will man the Jack position, and he's a fifth-year senior with a good deal of experience. We'll eventually have better players at the Jack position, but we shouldn't be overly concerned with Saunders. He's a solid player, and he fared quite well at the Jack position during the A-Day game, and will likely have a solid senior season.

The only real concern in the front seven is the nose tackle. Bryan Motley will almost certainly start there, and he has some potential on down the road. Unfortunately, at the moment, he is also young, undersized, and inexperienced. It's just not going to be pretty on the interior defensive line, no two ways about it. With that in mind, however, the harsh truth of the matter is that we have been piss-poor on the interior defensive line ever since Jarrett Johnson, Kenny King, and Kindal Moorehead graduated after the 2002 campaign. At bottom, we have relatively poor players replacing relatively poor players.

So, when you look at the front seven, it's actually fairly promising. No, they aren't the second coming of the Steel Curtain, but they do have some potential, and should have a relatively solid campaign in 2007. Certainly the interior tackle play is a concern, but as 2004 and 2005 showed, as long as the rest of the front seven plays well, you can make up for poor interior line play. Moreover, considering we will have two very big inside linebackers (one at 235 and the other at 255), that will go a long way to helping shore up the run defense.

Again, the front seven certainly won't be great, but as long as injuries don't hit us particularly hard, it could be relatively productive. All things considered, it should be relatively good against the run, and Saban will use his usual complicated blitz schemes to get pressure on the quarterback.

The pass defense, however, could be a major problem.

For whatever reason, people have this idea that our pass defense in 2006 was good, but that simply is not true, and the advanced statistics made that harsh truth blatantly obvious. Nevertheless, a lot of people believe that notion, and a corollary of that false belief is that our pass defense, particularly with the addition of Saban and his expert tutelage, should be good in 2007.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely to be that easy considering we must replace two starters from a secondary that wasn't particularly good to begin with.

Simeon Castille returns at cornerback, and he should have a good season. Aside from Castille, however, things are uncertain at best. Opposite Castille, no one in particular has stepped up to take the second cornerback spot. All in all, it seems to be a three-way battle between Kareem Jackson, Lionell Mitchell, and Marquis Johnson. Each player brings his a different skill set to the table, but at the moment none of them have stood out and taken the job. Moreover, the scary part is that Jackson and Johnson have never played any meaningful snaps, and Mitchell has only seen time as a nickel corner. It's all just one big question mark as to who starts opposite Simeon Castille.

The safety position, though, is a much bigger concern.

Rashad Johnson and Marcus Carter seem to be the likely starters, and honestly that's not a particularly good thing.

Johnson plays hard, but it's difficult to see him becoming more than just a replacement-level player. He is a former walk-on, and honestly his specialty may very well be special teams more than anything else. As mentioned earlier, he plays hard, but generally speaking there was just little-to-no production from him in 2006. Despite playing over 400 snaps, he registered only 26 tackles, no sacks, no interceptions, and no passes broken up. The Tennessee game provides a great example: despite Ainge throwing almost 50 passes and Johnson playing 60 snaps, he ended up with only two tackles (one solo, one assist), and no passes defensed of any kind. He seems like a good kid and a tough player, but there's just not much production to speak of from him.

Marcus Carter, while highly touted out of high school, is probably one of the worst safeties in the conference, and honestly he would be on the bench at most other SEC schools. He saw little meaningful playing time in 2004 and 2005, was terrible a year ago in 2006 as a part-time starter, and he looked just as bad at the A-Day game. He struggles in run support (see Keiland William's 38-yard touchdown run in the LSU game), plays with hesitance, and is poor in terms of pass coverage.

The harsh truth of the matter is that neither of these two guys are particularly good, and neither of them are "winning" starting jobs, so to speak. In reality, it's just that no one better has came along to beat them out, unfortunately. Honestly, we greatly need some other players to step up at safety. Michael Ricks could have probably started almost immediately, but he did not qualify. Justin Woodall is incredibly talented, but at the moment he still has not been able to crack the starting lineup. Corey Reamer has good size, but he's never been healthy, and doesn't seem to be contending for any meaningful playing time. Moreover, after knee surgery, his speed is a concern, which was probably one reason Saban experimented with him at linebacker in the Spring. Chris Lett could perhaps do it, but he hasn't practiced all Fall from complications with diabetes, so he is almost certainly going to redshirt. The truth is, if most practice reports are to be believed, Saban and company have tried a lot of different combinations at safety, and to this point nothing seems to be working particularly well.

All told, there are just a lot of problems regarding both safety positions, and unless someone else steps up over the next couple of weeks, those problems are likely to manifest themselves in a bad way once the regular season begins. With Carter and Johnson as the starters, at best they are serviceable players, and at worst they are major liabilities.

The truth be told, Saban will need to work his magic on these guys in terms of fundamentals, and also create a good bit of pressure on the quarterback for the Crimson Tide secondary to play near where most people think it will.

At the end of the day, things don't always turn out like you think. Don't be surprised if the front seven plays relatively well and the secondary struggles.

Scrimmage Notes

Fall practice is now well underway, and the first major hurdle has been cleared. On Saturday, the Crimson Tide conducted its first scrimmage.

A few general scrimmage notes:

• We threw the football, a lot. By my count there were 63 passes to 29 runs. Now don't go crazy, we won't do that in the regular season, but it's an interesting note. And, moreover, it was pretty successful for the offense. On 63 passes, we threw for -- again, by my count -- a whopping 528 yards. We averaged around nine yards per attempt, over thirteen yards per completion, and a completion percentage of around sixty per cent.
  

• Terry Grant continues to look like the starting tailback. On Saturday, he had 15 carries for 110 yards, and a touchdown. The touchdown came off of a 22-yard run. Glen Coffee got only 4 carries. Again, as mentioned earlier, it seems that as long as Grant stays healthy, he will be our starting tailback.
  

• Jimmy Johns, as I noted earlier, will be used quite a bit in this offense. This is not going to be a situation like we had with Le'Ron McClain where he is a blocker and not much else; we will attempt to use Johns in a Jacob Hester-esque fashion. Saturday's scrimmage showed that quite nicely. All told, Johns had 10 carries for 39 yards and 3 catches for 26 yards. He's just too talented to be just a blocker. He's going to get a lot of touches this year, get ready for it.
  

• John Parker Wilson had another nice day, going 13-22 for 231 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. From everything we have seen in camp, he could have a very good year.
  

• Roy Upchurch did not play. He is still in the black jersey due to some off-season shoulder surgery. There is no indication whatsoever as to when he'll return.
  

• The defense is not playing well. Generally speaking, the defense usually plays better than the offense early in camp, but not so with the Crimson Tide this year. The quarterbacks have a field day of throwing the football, and we couldn't stop Terry Grant either. We've apparently got some major improvement to make on that front.
  

• We seem to be doing pretty well in terms of place-kicking. On the day, we were four of five in field goal attempts. Christensen hit from 42 and 21 before missing from 31. Tiffin made a 21-yarder before connecting from 51. Sounds good.
  

• P.J. Fitzgerald is showing some promise, and he has a nice upside. But he still needs to improve. On eight punts in the scrimmage, he averaged only about 37 yards per punt, which is about what he did last year. Unless he dramatically improved hang time from over a year ago, that needs to improve.

• Thankfully, we got out of the scrimmage relatively free from injury. Of course, injuries hurt whenever they happen, but there is nothing worse than when you see a rash of injuries during practice. We have the potential to have a very good year if things come together, but we do not have anywhere near the quality depth needed to have a good year in spite of some poor injury luck.
  

Unit Breakdown: The Offensive Line

With no doubt, the Alabama offensive line has been the most frustrating and derided unit on the team the past two years, and possibly even longer than that. Shula regime struggles aside, even I can't remember when we had a really good line in terms of pass blocking. 2006 was a particularly disastrous year in terms of running the football, particularly in short-yardage situations, and the pass protection wasn't particularly good either, though it wasn't as bad as some made it out to be.

The funny thing though was, when Nick Saban arrived, it was mentioned quite often in a variety of circles that Saban and offensive line coach Joe Pendry were pleasantly surprised at the potential of the offensive line. And perhaps that shouldn't be too surprising. After all, there is no doubt that we have plenty of talent on the offensive. For all of the shortcomings of Mike Shula, he recruited very well on the offensive line, he could just never get it, as a unit, to perform that well.

So how is the line stacking up in 2007?

To begin with, we know we have two very good football players.

Center Antoine Caldwell returns for his junior campaign, and Caldwell is one of the best centers you will find anywhere. He's a very bright individual (always important for the center position), very athletic, and a hard worker. Combined, all of that ability makes him very versatile, and he can truthfully play any position on the offensive line at this level. As a redshirt freshman in 2005, he played guard, then moved to center for the Cotton Bowl and the 2006 season. After the Chris Capps meltdown in the 2006 Iron Bowl, he was moved to right tackle on the fly, and he did quite well. Auburn defensive end Quentin Groves, who will be playing on Sunday this time next year, didn't put another finger on John Parker Wilson once Caldwell was moved to right tackle. There are no two ways about it, Caldwell is a fine player, and we have no concerns at the center position.

Left tackle Andre Smith, too, is a great football player. When he came out of high school, he was the top offensive line recruit in the country, and many (including ESPN.com) dubbed him, with little doubt, as the best left tackle prospect to come out in ages. He didn't disappoint. Despite playing overweight and out of shape, he started all year as a true freshman at the line's most difficult position, and looked very good. He even nearly killed a thief in Fayetteville, and ran for a touchdown in the bowl game. The truth is, the sky is the limit for Smith, particularly now that he has much better coaching and is in much better shape. He legitimately has the raw talent to end up with a bust in Canton. If he can stay healthy, he'll probably make some All-America teams this year.

The other three positions are the question marks.

At left guard, Justin Britt is the likely starter. After spending his first two years on the defensive line, he made the move to left guard last year, and started ten games. All in all, he played pretty well. He's a bit small for a guard, but he is an aggressive player, and that usually pays off pretty well in the running game for an interior lineman. As expected, he was a bit raw last year, especially in terms of pass protection, but seems to be progressing nicely. Britt is not the second coming of John Hannah, but he seems to have the capabilities to turn in a solid campaign.

Right guard will belong to redshirt junior Marlon Davis. In 2006, B.J. Stabler was technically the starter for most the season (Davis started three games late in the year to spell an injured Stabler), but he generally split snaps all season long with Davis. Now that B.J. Stabler has been moved to right tackle, Marlon Davis will be taking over full-time at right guard. The good news is that Davis has really gotten it done in the weight room this off-season, and is in noticeably better shape. All told, Davis has dropped 21 pounds according to RollTide.com, and looks to be in great shape. The coaching staff obviously likes Marlon Davis, and thinks highly of his productive potential. The bright outlook on Davis was the major reason why B.J. Stabler was moved to right tackle, so it's reasonable to expect a solid season out of Davis in 2007.

Right tackle is where it really gets interesting. B.J. Stabler, never a workout warrior, has gotten it together this year, dropping 13 pounds, and he has moved to right tackle, as mentioned earlier. Unfortunately, Stabler has been slowed his entire career by leg injuries (three left knee surgeries), but it seems he is finally healthy in that regard. But he's not winning the starting job at the moment. Instead, Mike Johnson, a 6'6, 296 pound redshirt sophomore, seems to be the front-runner for the starting job. Johnson is an extremely bright individual (4.0 GPA in high school, and a 27 on the ACT), and he is a hard worker who has apparently really impressed the coaching staff thus far. Moreover, his natural size (6'6 equals long arms) fits well at tackle, and apparently his footwork is good.

So, that seems to be it at the moment. If you had to say today, the starting offensive line would be:

LT: Andre Smith
LG: Justin Britt
C: Antoine Caldwell
RG: Marlon Davis
RT: Mike Johnson

Moreover, a few other players are certain to enter into the mix as well.

B.J. Stabler, unless he makes a big surge in the coming weeks, is not going to start this year. However, a much leaner, much healthier Stabler will still be a major contributor, if but for nothing more than this versatility (can play both guard and tackle). Moreover, given his history of leg woes, a somewhat limited role could be the ideal situation for him.

Chris Capps won't be starting this year, but he is a very valuable back-up. He is currently splitting time between left tackle and right tackle. Though Capps isn't a particularly good player, with some help (tight end or back helping him out, or shorter drops from the quarterback), he can be relatively effective. He is a senior and he has started for two seasons (24 starts). Few teams have the luxury of someone like that coming off of the bench.

Evan Cardwell is a fine center, and his only problem is Antoine Caldwell. He played some last year at center, and did quite well. Again, he's not going to start, but he is a fine player, and it is nice to know that if something happened to Caldwell, we have a player the quality of Cardwell to come off of the bench.

All told, believe it or not, things look good for the offensive line in 2007. Andre Smith is likely a legend in the making, and Antoine Caldwell is one of the best centers you will find anywhere. If we can just get solid play out of the other three starters, we'll be in good shape.

There are just a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the offensive line. Everyone returns from a year ago, the players are in noticeably better shape, the coaching will be much improved, and this line has a good bit of depth.

Perhaps this will finally be the year all of the talent up front turns into production.

Tailback: Is Size A Concern?

Especially now that the bulky Jimmy Johns has been moved to fullback, some are worried about the lack of size for the likely starters: Terry Grant and Glen Coffee. Being specific, Grant is listed at 189 pounds, and Coffee is listed as 197. Obviously, neither of those two are the second-coming of Jerome Bettis, to say the very least.

So do Tide fans really have anything to worry about in terms of injuries to the tailbacks due to their small size? Well, let's look at history a bit first before we come to any conclusions.

Bobby Humphrey, for example, was probably the greatest running back we've ever had at Alabama, and during his prime he played at only about 180 pounds. After huge years in 1986 and 1987, Humphrey was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in his senior season in 1998. Unfortunately, he broke his foot early in his senior season (1988), an injury unrelated to his size, and that was the end of his career. Oddly enough, he suffered the injury when he was playing at his highest weight ever, just over 200 pounds. Since Shaun Alexander came along, most forget that Humphrey, despite missing almost all of his senior season, is only 145 rushing yards behind Alexander for the all-time Alabama record, and Humphrey still holds the all-time Alabama single-season rushing record.

Derrick Lassic, in 1992, was the key cog to our rushing attack, and one of the few bright spots we had on offense. Despite getting almost 200 carries that year, he ran for almost 1,000 yards, and was the Sugar Bowl MVP. He did so at a mere 186 pounds.

Sherman Williams was the Tide's leading rusher in both 1993 and 1994, yet he weighed in at well under 200 pounds.

Shaud Williams was one of the Tide's best all-time tailbacks. In his two years at Alabama, he rushed for well over 2,000 yards, and for 13 touchdowns, averaging over 5.5 yards per carry. In 2003, he had the third most single-season rushing yards in Alabama football history. He did it all at around 189 pounds.

And that's just a few Alabama players that I could think off of the top of my head. Beyond Alabama players, there are entirely too many other small tailbacks who have done extremely well with little or no injury problems at the collegiate level. Again, off the top of my head, a few players I can think of that did really well despite being a bit small are Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Warrick Dunn.

At bottom, there's just no legitimate concern with small tailbacks. There is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that they are more prone to injury than bigger tailbacks. If anything, smaller tailbacks are most likely less injury prone because they can use their small bodies and increased agility to avoid big hits. Bigger runners, on the other hand, have no other option but to endure the punishment, and of course the ensuing injuries. The same can't be said for the small guys.

Injuries can happen at any time, and tailback is one of the most injury-prone positions. It shouldn't be shocking at all to see either Grant or Coffee go down with an injury, but those injuries won't be related to their size. If anything, their small stature will likely assist in keeping them healthy.

Clarification: Jimmy Johns

I've gotten a few questions regarding Jimmy Johns that past couple of days. If you recall, a few weeks back I wrote one article talking about, once you viewed it through the advanced statistics, how well Johns performed in the "big" games last year (eight conference games, plus Hawai'i and the bowl game), and another article analyzing how specifically how Johns was under-utilized as games wore on, after a hot start. However, now Jimmy Johns is apparently getting most of his work at fullback, and from all that we can tell, Johns is going to play fullback this season.

So, some readers want to know, how do those two things mesh? They seem a bit conflicting, so how do you reconcile those two things?

Personally, I think there are a few reasons.

For one, all of the numbers from a year ago with Johns were in a back-up role. Yes, he did very well in that limited role, no doubt about it. However, there is a major difference between doing things in a limited role and doing them on a full-time basis. Just because you were good over the course of 50 carries doesn't mean you will necessarily replicate that success over the course of 250 carries. In fact, the guys at Football Outsiders even have a term for players who do well on a limited basis, but then fall on their face once they take over full time. They call it the "Doug Johnson Effect" in "honor" of the former Atlanta Falcons quarterback. All the data I crunched on Johns from a year ago says is that he, more or less, should have been given more carries instead of riding the bench. That said, however, we can never know whether or not he would have actually been able to have the same success in an expanded role, all we can say is that he should have gotten the opportunity to do so. Perhaps Saban and company do not feel that Johns would be able to have the same success on a full-time basis.

Two, we need a fullback. I know that sounds elementary, but it's true. I've written in the past that, in 2007, our base set is likely going to be a singleback formation, with three wide receivers (Brown and Hall out wide, Stover in the slot), with a tight end. And I think that is mainly correct, we'll see that a lot in 2007. It just makes sense, if those three guys are healthy. If we put Hall, Brown, and Stover on the field at the same time, it will require the opposing defense to force either a linebacker or a nickel corner to cover one of those three players, and that's a match-up we will win almost every time. But, still, you need a fullback, particularly in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations. Beyond that, it would be nice to utilize the fullback in other situations as well, particularly when he has play-making abilities of Jimmy Johns.

Three, even without Johns, we seem set at tailback. Despite the disappointing injury to Demetrius Goode (torn ACL), Terry Grant is doing very well and is apparently at the top of the depth chart. Glen Coffee, now much leaner, is also doing quite well, and as a whole we seem to be set at tailback. By moving Johns to fullback, we can put more talent on the field at one time, without really giving up anything at tailback.

Four, even though Johns is working a good bit at fullback, he could still play tailback some. It's not like this means he'll never line up at tailback again. If we need him there, for injuries or whatever reason, he could quickly move back and re-acclimate himself to the position in no time.

Putting it all together, it's just a move that makes a lot of sense. No one knows if Johns can really get it done at tailback on a full-time basis, we're in need of a fullback with experience, we seem set at tailback, and even so, Johns could move back to tailback, if needed. Again, it just makes a good bit of sense.

At bottom, though, above and beyond all else, I think this is mainly a move to add an extra threat to the offense. Nothing against Baron Huber, but the harsh truth is that we are likely a more productive offense with Grant / Coffee at tailback and Johns at fullback than we are with Grant / Coffee / Johns at tailback with Huber at fullback. Doing this really adds an explosive element to our offense, and honestly that's something we didn't have last year with Le'Ron McClain. Though McClain was with little doubt the best pure blocking fullback in the country, he was never a real rushing threat (averaged less than seven yards rushing per game for his career), and he was never a real receiving threat, either. He did have 38 catches the past two years, but it was mainly as desperation dump-off passes by Wilson / Croyle in attempts to avoid sacks. Generally speaking, he was never a significant part of the passing game.

Jimmy Johns, with no doubt whatsoever, would change that. He would give us a player at fullback with the running and catching abilities of a good tailback. He has the ability to legitimately be a player that, once he touches the ball, could well rack up first downs, big yardage, and touchdowns.

I imagine that Saban and company are fully expecting to use Johns in a role very much like the current LSU coaching staff has used a former Saban recruit: Jacob Hester.

More On Kick-Off Rule Change

Nearly two weeks, I wrote on the massive effects that the rule change regarding kick-offs would bring about. Some have speculated that now, teams would simply kick the ball out of bounds and let the opponent take it at the 35, instead of risking a bigger return.

As usual, things aren't just that simple. I found the following in the NCAA rulebook (warning: PDF, scroll down to the top of page 185) regarding kicks that go out of bounds:

"A kickoff from Team A’s 30-yard line goes out of bounds untouched by Team B, and no other foul (or violation) occurs. RULING: Team B may accept a five-yard penalty from the previous spot with Team A kicking from the 25-yard line, or Team B may put the ball in play at Team B’s 35-yard line at the inbounds spot or at the inbounds spot where the ball went out of bounds. Team B may put the ball in play following a penalty at the dead ball spot."

As said earlier, things just aren't that simple.

Say that you do choose to just kick the ball out-of-bounds. It won't work. If you kick it out-of bounds, the return team will simply accept the five-yard penalty, and you will have to re-kick from the 25 yard line. If you again kick it out of bounds, they will again accept the five-yard penalty, and you will have to re-kick from the 20-yard line. At bottom, kicking the football out of bounds only digs you deeper in the hole each time you do it.

The only way the return team would decline the penalty is if you shanked the kick-off (or got a poor subjective ruling from the officials as to where the ball really went out of bounds at), and then they would simply take the ball where it went at of bounds. Considering that would probably have them either near, or at, midfield, that wouldn't work. The average expected starting field position would be worse if they had just kicked it deep.

At bottom, all of this junk about kicking the ball out of bounds isn't going to work. It's a junk idea, and teams that try it (and I seriously doubt there will really be any) will soon find themselves in big trouble.

Moreover, even squib kicking -- while not as perilous as kicking the ball out of bounds -- is not likely to be particularly effective. In reality, generally speaking, the key to the squib kick is surprise. Return teams do not expect it, and a well-placed squib kick completely disorganizes the return. If you expect it, however, it's nowhere near as effective. The return team knows it is likely to come and they compensate accordingly. Return men will move up, then charge the ball to field it, and (as we've seen quite a bit in late-game scenarios in the NFL) even if the up-men grab the football, they will generally just immediately pitch it back to the returner and go about their business. Again, as noted earlier, the squib kick is just not going to be particularly effective if you use it on a regular basis.

At the end of the day, you simply are not going to weasel your way around this rule. You are going to have to kick the football deep, and you are going to have to go down and effectively cover it. And if you can't do that, well, you are in big trouble, and there is no real way around it.

As I said almost two weeks ago, this rule will have a massive impact, and teams that can cover kicks effectively and return kicks effectively will be in great shape to win a lot of games, and teams that cannot cover kicks effectively or return kicks effectively will be in big trouble, and could easily see wins turn into losses as a result of special teams meltdowns.

Random Practice Notes

As of early Monday morning, the Crimson Tide has completed their third practice. And the third, i.e. the one that preceded Fan Day, was open to the public. At this point, we've found out a few things here and there that we can safely say, one way or the other, about developments thus far in practice. Here goes:

• Players, as a whole, seem to be in much better shape. Noticeably gone are the big bellies that we have seen the past few years. The apocryphal "Puddin' ass" and his cohorts in crime have apparently discovered, or perhaps I should say forced to discover, our world-class weight room facilities.
  

• The defensive line is big, no two ways about it. Again, "Puddin' ass"... The thing is, even the defensive ends are huge, which is largely to be expected in the 3-4. Generally speaking, even the defensive ends now are mostly between 270 and 285 pounds. The defensive ends in 2007 will essentially be as big as the defensive tackles that we have had the past several years. And, not to be outdone, the defensive tackles are quite large as well, with both Chapman and McCullough reporting around 300 pounds each.
  

• Prince Hall is not in the Saban doghouse. Some people concluded as such after Hall spent the first practice with the freshmen, but that's not the case. Apparently the staff is trying to get the young defenders (who, of course, we will need this season) acclimated to the environment and the college game.
  

• Speaking of Hall, at the open practice, he was barking out orders to the defense. With little doubt, he seems to be the field general of the defense.
  

• More on Hall, he's in much better shape this year. As well as he played last year, the truth was that he was a bit overweight and out-of-shape. Not anymore. He's dropped a good bit of weight and noticeably has the best physique since he has arrived at the Capstone.
  

• Rolando McClain showed up as a beast, as expected. He has been shadowing Prince Hall, from all we can tell, and that's not too surprising. I believe, judging by the totality of the circumstances, that the coaching staff realizes that, if at all possible from a mental perspective, McClain needs to start this year, as soon as possible. I imagine that tutoring McClain may have been the main reason Prince Hall was with the freshmen on the first day.
  

• Roy Upchurch missed the first practice, but he showed up today. However, he was wearing a black jersey signifying no contact. Then again, on the other hand, he was taking reps with the first-team offense. I imagine the only people who really know what is going on here is the players and the coaches, seems odd to say the least.
  

• Chris Capps does not appear to be close to any meaningful playing time. Obviously, among other things, the shoulder surgery that caused him to miss Spring practice and much of the off-season workout program have hurt him greatly. He has taken some reps at left tackle, backing up Andre of course, and has also taken some reps at right tackle. However, it seems that he is noticeably behind both Mike Johnson and B.J. Stabler (a much leaner B.J. Stabler, I might add). Given how the coaching staff is flipping him around, I cannot help but wonder if they are trying to mold Capps into a multi-dimensional reserve player who could play a variety of positions if, or I should say when, one of the starters gets hurt. Starting doesn't seem to be in his future, either way.
  

• Jimmy Johns is taken a high number of snaps at fullback. No, rumors of him being 250 pounds were incorrect, but nevertheless he is still taking reps as a fullback. I really do not know about this one, honestly. He was with the first-team offense during Spring practice, and you would assume he would be there again, but apparently not. Of course, this may be just Saban experimenting like the mad scientist that he is renowned for being on the practice field. And no one really knows if Johns is being used as a true fullback or more of a hybrid H-back. Again, lots of questions here, few definite answers.
  

• Glen Coffee has dropped a good bit of weight, it seems. I don't know if the 28 pound figure at RollTide.com is correct, but it is obvious just from plain-sight that he is considerably leaner. That's huge news, to be quite reserved about the situation. A tailback at 225 pounds is a completely different player than a tailback at 197 pounds. It's two completely different running styles, etc. Again, much like with Johns, lots of questions here, few definite answers.
  

• John Parker Wilson impressed several today at Fan Day, and many noted his seemingly improved arm strength. We'll see with the first scrimmage on that one, though there is little doubt that a rigorous workout program and improved mechanics (which probably wasn't a major problem with Wilson, but nevertheless) can improve overall arm strength.
  

• Marquis Maze is impressing everyone in the return game. He's not ready to play on offense, but he is wowing people when he gets the ball in the open field on returns. Considering Arenas and Grant are already considered good returners, I'm not sure he will play this year, but it's good news nonetheless.
  

• Though it shouldn't come as much of a surprise, the defense does seem much more complicated than in the past. Kines never had complex schemes; the underlying philosophy to the Kines' scheme in that sense was that we are going to be pretty simple, but we are going to be very good at those few things that we do. Saban is the exact opposite. Even going back to his time as defensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns in the mid-1990's, Saban has been known for his extremely complex defensive packages, and that seems no different at Alabama. Unlike in the past, our guys will have to really keep their head in the playbook. No more simpleton stuff with the Nicktator around.
  

• Lorenzo Washington has gotten noticeably bigger. He still has a ways to go, but for the first time he is seemingly making progress. He is in the mid-280's now, and it shows. He has bounced back and forth, seeing some time at tackle and some at end. Hopefully he's beginning to fulfill his promise.
  

• Nikita Stover was hurt today, going out with an apparent knee / hip injury. He got tangled up going for a jump ball in double coverage, and I assume landed awkwardly. Nothing has been said of it thus far, so hopefully the silence is good news, especially considering how quickly the Demetrius Goode news came out.
  

And, well, that's about it. As expected, there are probably a lot more questions marks than answers, but again, that's expected. Thankfully, we should find out more in the coming days, and the first scrimmage will answer many of our questions. Either way, Fall practice seems to be off to a good start for the Crimson Tide.

The SEC East: 24 Questions

We've looked at the SEC West. So now we turn to the SEC East...

Every team has questions marks. And how those question marks are resolved is largely the determining factor in the overall quality and level of success of a football team. So, six SEC East teams, four questions each. Twenty-four questions:

Florida

(1) Despite bringing home the crystal trophy in 2006, Florida wasn't particularly good on the offensive side of the ball. Oh, sure, they weren't bad, but they certainly weren't anything special. Chris Leak is gone, and now Tim Tebow is going to have to be much more than a glorified fullback and the key cog of a bunch of trick plays. The Gators don't really return that many starters on offense, but they are, without doubt, very talented. Can the Florida offense step it up in Meyer's third year and take off in terms of point production, or is another so-so year on the horizon?

(2) The Florida running game has not been particularly good since Meyer arrived in Gainesville. They have talented players, as expected, but that hasn't turned into production. Honestly, Tim Tebow in 2006 was the best running threat the Gators have had to date, and that needs to change. We'll see if Kestahn Moore, Chris Rainey, and others to turn this running game into something special. Will the Florida running game become one of the best in the conference, or will it be another mediocre year for the Meyer backfield in Gainesville?

(3) As said earlier, the Florida offense wasn't particularly good in 2006, and it was without doubt the Florida defense that brought the crystal trophy back to Gainesville. Problem is, the Gators are in for a major rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball, as only two starters return. At bottom, it's very young and inexperienced, though talented. If Florida wants to get anywhere near where they want to go, this defense is going to have to get it together and be productive quickly. Can the Florida defense quickly congeal and be near as productive of a unit as the Gators had in 2006?

(4) Without running the numbers, I imagine the place-kicking for Florida last year was the worst of any national champion in ages. Chris Hetland was only 4-13 overall, and was only 1-10 in kicks of 30 yards or more. Yet, somehow, the place-kicking woes didn't cost the Gators too much in 2006. Hetland is gone now, though, and a new face will be handing the place-kicking duties. Considering the extreme importance of accurate place-kicking in close games, will Florida be able to find a consistently successful place-kicker when it counts in 2007?

Georgia

(1) Matt Stafford returns for year number two, and the Bulldogs will sink or swim with him. He looked terrible part of last year, and then played pretty good football down the stretch. UGA will need him to do the latter if they expect any real success in 2007. Though Stafford is still at least a year or so away from peak performance, he still needs to have a good season in terms of both production and protecting the football. Can Matt Stafford continue to improve on the solid finish to his 2006 season, or will he regress into another Georgia nightmare of incompletions and interceptions?

(2) Aside from Stafford, there are some other uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball. The team's leading receiver from a year ago, Martrez Milner, is gone, and so are both offensive tackles, who were the key cogs to the Dawgs pass protection. The receiving corps, too, is a question mark. It's talented, but has some injury concerns and as a whole has never been particularly consistent. How well will Georgia be able to replace the tight end and the tackles, and will the receiving corps be able to stay healthy and consistently productive?

(3) Surprisingly enough, after we did a thorough analysis off the 2006 SEC pass rushes, Georgia didn't do particularly well. Despite having two of the best rush ends in the country -- Quentin Moses and Charles Johnson -- they finished only fifth in the conference in Adjusted Sacks. Considering both of those players have now moved on to the NFL, there should be legitimate worries over the effectiveness of the Dawgs 2007 pass rush. Will Georgia be able to handle the losses of Moses and Johnson and still effectively rush the passer, or will the Dawgs be giving opposing quarterbacks all day to throw?

(4) Defensive line aside, the Georgia defense as a whole is staring down the barrel of a massive rebuilding job. All told, they only return three starters on defense, and the defensive back seven will be almost wholly new. Considering the UGA pass rush may not be particularly good, will the defensive back seven be able to quickly replace starters from a year ago and form an effective unit?

Kentucky

(1) Despite a lot of firepower at the offensive skill positions, the Wildcat offensive line is a bit of a mess. The left side is perhaps okay, but the center position and the right side of the offensive line is in trouble. There is no depth to the group, and a true freshman (Stuart Hines) is likely to start at right tackle. Will the Kentucky offensive line be good enough to allow all of the of the firepower at the skill positions to take off and rack up a lot of yardage and points?

(2) Despite an overall powerful offense last year, Kentucky wasn't particularly good in the red zone, and had some definite problems. No, they weren't Alabama bad in that sense, but they weren't particularly good either. As Alabama fans saw in 2006, it doesn't really matter how well you move the ball if you stall out inside the 20. Will the Kentucky offense put its 2006 red zone problems aside, or will they continue and be a major roadblock in their quest for back-to-back bowl appearances?

(3) The defensive line is a major problem for the Wildcats. Two projected starters, Josh Minton and Ventrell Jenkins, are unlikely to be able to play this year due to injuries, and overall the unit just lacks depth. Moreover, they get no real help from the incoming recruiting class, where arguably the only player ready to perform at an SEC-caliber level, DJ Stafford, did not qualify academically. Can the Kentucky defense play respectable football, or will they be torn to shreds by quality offensive lines?

(4) Kentucky was one of the worst teams in the conference last year in terms of pass defense, and a variety of metrics here at Outside The Sidelines have confirmed that. Though much of the defensive backfield returns, they have a lot of progress to make. Will the Kentucky secondary be able to produce a semi-effective pass defense, or will opposing teams continue to throw effectively at will?

South Carolina

(1) Blake Mitchell could probably be the textbook example of the usual love / hate relationship that Steve Spurrier has with his quarterbacks. He looked surprisingly good for most of 2005, then flopped in early 2006, which landed him a spot on the bench, and that suddenly rebounded to close the year. If Mitchell plays like he did late in 2006, South Carolina could have a potent offense, but if not, they are likely in big trouble. Much like with Georgia and Matt Stafford, which players shows up in 2007?

(2) Mitchell aside, the major question mark to the Gamecock offense is the offensive line, which includes replacing the center and the two starting guards from a year ago. Though their appears to be plenty of talent at the skill positions, it will all go for not if the Gamecocks lose the battle in the trenches. Will the offensive line be good enough to allow Blake Mitchell and the other skill position players to rack up big yardage and points?

(3) The South Carolina, secondary, without doubt, has a good deal of talent and a good deal of potential. The defensive front seven for the Gamecocks is about as good as you'll find anywhere, and if the secondary can step up and live up to its talent, it could turn this defense into one of the best in the nation. Can the secondary take a step forward and turn this defense into a true shutdown defense?

(4) South Carolina is not without talent, but in terms of depth, they probably still aren't as deep as the big boys of the SEC. Spurrier has done a fine job in recruiting, but it takes time and South Carolina is still not as deep, from top-to-bottom of the depth chart, as are some other SEC teams. And that will be a major problem if injuries arise for the Gamecocks. While they should still be pretty good, if injuries arise you can pretty much cancel out any chance of an appearance in Atlanta. Can South Carolina get the injury luck needed to not have to rely greatly on their depth chart and thus make a push for Atlanta?

Tennessee

(1) Tennessee loses the three leading receivers from their high octane passing attack of 2006, and they will have a lot of young guys with little experience at wide-out this season. Granted, Erik Ainge is a fine quarterback, but the Tennessee passing offense is never going to take off like it did a year ago unless those young receivers can step up and play good football. Can the youthful Tennessee receivers step up and play good football, allowing Ainge to replicate his successes of a year ago, or will inconsistent play at the wide-out position result in a drop-off in the passing attack?

(2) Offensive Coordinator David Cutcliffe is wanting to get back a power running game at Tennessee, and that didn't work in 2006. Despite a lot of talent at tailback, the offensive line wasn't particularly suited for that job, but another year will help their development. Can the Tennessee rushing attack be as powerful as it was on days gone by, or will it be another poor rushing attack for the Vols, who will have to hope that Ainge and company can get it done through the air?

(3) The Tennessee defensive line has a few key replacements to make. However, they do have several very talented and experienced players from which to make those replacements (such as Demonte Bolden, Antonio Reynolds, etc.). The only problem is, none of those guys have ever played that all. To paraphrase an old saying, they look like Tarzan but have played like Jane. Much like a lot of the Tennessee roster the past few years, thus far they have been great players who have never lived up to their potential. Will those defensive linemen finally play up to their potential and create a top-notch defensive line?

(4) The Vol secondary returns Jonathon Hefney, who is a great player. Aside from that, it's a major question mark, and the other three sports are up for grabs. We don't know who will grab them just yet, but whoever it will be will generally be very young and inexperienced plays. Can the young Vol secondary form around Hefney and produce an effective pass defense, or will they struggle in terms of pass defense again in 2007?

Vanderbilt

(1) Chris Nickson surprised most in 2006 with his performance in replacing Jay Cutler. However, Nickson's game did leave a lot to be desired, and he was very inconsistent at times. He had some big games (mainly Florida and Kentucky), but in nine games he failed to throw for more than 150 yards. All told, Nickson has to be consistently better all across the board. Will Nickson's overall performance improve, or will he continue to be the boom and bust quarterback that he was in 2006?

(2) Cassen Jackson-Garrison is a pretty talented running back. He has good size, and is a pretty good runner. Unfortunately, last year the Vanderbilt offense was built solely upon either Chris Nickson passing or running around with the ball. Garrison did well at times, but never really got the ball, as he saw more than 18 carries only once all season. If Vanderbilt is to be effective in 2007, they have to actually develop a running game, and it has to be more than just Chris Nickson. Will Cassen Jackson-Garrison be given the opportunity to create a legitimate running game, or will it be The Chris Nickson Show: Part II?

(3) Earl Bennett had a good year in 2006, but it was very streaky. He had more than three times as many catches as the team's second leading receiver, and more than three times as many yards as well. Problem was, as noted earlier, his production was inconsistent at best. The majority of his production came in four games, and in the other eight games he often times struggled to make an impact. For the Vanderbilt passing game to take off, aside from better play from Nickson, it needs Earl Bennett to become more consistent. Can Earl Bennett consistently put up big numbers in 2007, or will it be the same boom and bust as of 2006?

(4) The Vanderbilt pass defense in 2006 was simply terrible, no two ways about it. It was, with almost no doubt, the worst in the conference. They have some experienced players returning in 2007, but this unit still has to improve by leaps and bounds. Considering the front seven should be pretty good, if this unit can even put together a relatively decent performance, the Vanderbilt defense should be fairly good. Will the Vanderbilt secondary play relatively well and create a solid overall defense, or will atrocious pass defense ruin an otherwise solid defense for the second year in a row?

The SEC West: 24 Questions

Every team has questions marks. And how those question marks are resolved is largely the determining factor in the overall quality and level of success of a football team. So, six SEC West teams, four questions each. Twenty-four questions:

Alabama

(1) The offensive line struggled a year ago, to put it mildly. However, everyone returns, and the old coaching techniques have been ditched. The S&C program is much more difficult under Saban, and the offensive linemen have reported in much better physical condition than a year ago. It's almost a given that the line will improve, but how much? Will they go from poor to mediocre, or will they emerge as one of the best offensive lines in the conference?

(2) The running game last year was quite bad, likely the worst since 1993. Ken Darby is gone, though that is unlikely to be a major loss, and there are several backs who may seize the starting job, including Jimmy Johns, Glen Coffee, Roy Upchurch, Terry Grant, and Demetrius Goode. Which one(s) will step up, and how effective will they be in carrying the running game?

(3) The Crimson Tide defense definitely has some talent, but is generally young and inexperienced. Notably, several true freshman expect to see a good bit of meaningful playing time in conference play, including Rolando McClain (LB), Kareem Jackson (CB), Alfred McCullough (DT), Josh Chapman (DT), and Luther Davis (DE). And some other young players, such as Justin Woodall, will likely start. All told, for better or for worse, the performance of the younger players will go a long way to determining the overall quality of the defense. Exactly how will those players perform, and how will the defense as a whole perform with several young and inexperienced players in the line-up?

(4) In terms of special teams, Alabama was one of the worst teams in the conference last year. We struggled with place-kicking, punting, kick-offs, punt coverage, and kick coverage. There were really no bright spots, for the most part. And with the new rule change on kick-offs, special teams figure to be more important than ever. With a new coaching staff in place, and a new special teams coach (Ron Middleton), how will the special teams perform?

Auburn

(1) The Tigers must rebuild their offensive line for 2007, which is a bit of a concern considering the Auburn offense was mediocre at best in 2006. The Tommy Tuberville offenses are generally built mainly around an effective power running game, and everything else works off that once it has been established. Obviously, power running games only work effectively with good blocking from the big uglies. Will the new starters be able to replicate the success of the Auburn offensive lines from the past three years?

(2) Offensively, at the skill positions, proven talent is very short on the Plains. Courtney Taylor and Kenny Irons are both gone, and there are really no proven skill position players. At tailback, the two leaders are Brad Lester and Ben Tate, but both are unproven. Brad Lester looked okay last year, but racked up most of his yardage against inferior opponents, and was generally a moderately successful boom or bust back (occasional long run, but overall a very low Running Back Success Rate). Ben Tate, on the other hand, never really had a meaningful carry all year, and racked up his yardage against the Sisters of the Poor. At wide receiver, neither Rodgerigus Smith or Prechae Rodriguez were particularly good last year, and they both need to make major strides in 2007. Will the offensive skill position players step up and give Auburn an explosive threat, or will they be in for another mediocre year on offense?

(3) Though defensive end Quentin Groves returns, Auburn did lose their best cornerback, David Irons? Auburn had a decent pass defense in 2006, but nothing particularly good, finish sixth in the conference in opposing quarterback passer rating. Will the loss of Irons spell a mediocre, or perhaps worse, year for the pass defense, or will we see some improvement and really see the Auburn defense blossom into one of the best in the country?

(4) Auburn loses both specialty kickers, place-kicker John Vaugn, and punter Kody Bliss. Vaughn was arguably the best kicker in the conference when not playing LSU, and Bliss was without doubt the best punter in the conference. Their replacements will have big shoes to fill to say the least. Can the new Auburn kicker win games that come down to place-kicking, and can the new punter keep the field position battles tilted in his team's favor?

Arkansas

(1) The Mitch Mustain Melodrama has headed West, but quarterback play is still a major issue for the Hogs. Casey Dick will be the starter, but Dick has never looked particularly good in the past, even with arguably the best running game in the country at his disposal. He's generally played like, well, dick. Regardless of how good McFadden and Jones are, it's going to be quite tough for them to really take off with no effective passing game. So, how will Dick and the passing game develop in 2007?

(2) The Hogs had arguably the best offensive line in the conference in 2007, but it must now be almost completely rebuilt from top-to-bottom. Of course, offensive line play is key to the running game, and even with fantastic backs, you aren't going to have a great running game if your offensive line is struggling. Considering the absolute necessity that the Arkansas running game being great in 2007 (due to a likely poor passing game), can the inexperienced Arkansas offensive line congeal and produce like their predecessors so that McFadden and Jones can make for a truly great Arkansas rushing attack?

(3) Two starters from last year's defensive line, Keith Jackson and Jamaal Anderson, are gone. The two returning starters are also questionable. Antwain Robinson (of Andre Smith fame) was arrested for theft in a local Dillard's department store, and Marcus Harrison is still hurting from a Spring knee injury that resulted in torn cartilage and a bone bruise. He missed the rest of Spring, and nearly all off-season conditioning work, and will likely miss the season opener as well. Can the Arkansas defensive line be as stout as last year, or are they in for a long year of getting shoved around by opposing big uglies?

(4) Defensive line worries aside, the Arkansas defense loses quite a bit in the back seven, including leader Sam Olajabutu, and star cornerback Chris Houston, among others. Can the Hogs quickly rebuild the back seven, in light of defensive line concerns, or will inexperienced players yield a relatively poor overall defense?

LSU

(1) Matt Flynn is a fifth-year senior, and the Bayou Bengals will sink or swim with him. His health is a concern, but it's not a question mark. If he goes down for any significant time, LSU is unlikely to get anywhere near where they want to go, no real uncertainty about that. In reality, the question mark surrounds a single fact: he has never really played before. He may be good, he may be poor. He's only seen meaningful playing time once in his career, in the 2005 Peach Bowl. There he did well with the help of a great rushing attack against an ACC team of questionable quality (Miami). To be quite frank, to this point, his resume is exactly like that of former Alabama quarterback Brian Burgdorf. If you don't recall, Burgdorf signed with Alabama in the early 1990's, but never played because of the presence of Jay Barker. Finally, after Barker tore his ACL against Auburn in 1993, Burgdorf took over for the Gator Bowl, and went 15-23 for 166 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, plus 6 carries for another 48 yards and a touchdown, leading the Tide to a win over an ACC team of questionable quality (North Carolina). It was his only legitimate playing time, and people had high hopes for when he finally assumed the starting job. Of course, Burgdorf, when he finally assumed the starting job as a fifth-year senior in 1995, only after Barker graduated, was a complete flop, and quickly found his way to the bench. Will Matt Flynn be good enough to get the job done, or will he fade away in the spotlight, and become the LSU version of Brian Burgdorf?

(2) The LSU offensive line wasn't particularly good last year, and they really struggled in terms of run blocking. Their only saving grace was in pass protection, where an incredible deep threat passing game, and an almost un-sackable quarterback combined to make their life very easy. With Russell, Bowe, Davis, and offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher gone, the deep threat passing game is largely gone too. The new look under Gary Crowton will feature a lot of short passes, and should require a much improved running game, and all of that means the LSU offensive line must improve drastically if they want offensive production be as good as it was a year ago. Ciron Black and Brett Helms are good players, and so is Will Arnold (voted pre-season All-SEC), but even Les Miles isn't sure just how much Arnold can even practice, much less play, due to a variety of injuries that have plagued him the past couple of yearas. Worse still, the now-former offensive line coach Stacey Searels is gone to Georgia, and the line will have to adjust to new offensive line coach Greg Studrawa's blocking schemes. At bottom, is this line going to step up and give the rest of the LSU offense the full opportunity to get the most production possible, or is it going to remain so-so and force the Bayou Bengal faithful to hope that Matt Flynn is really that good and the rest of the skill position players can put points on the scoreboard, despite mediocre line play?

(3) The LSU defense should be good, no two ways about it. The loss of LaRon Landry and Jesse Daniels will hurt, but it should still be very good. However, last year, the Tiger defense was the epitome of great injury luck, as no starter missed any legitimate playing time. If LSU is to have that good of a defense again this year, they'll have to get the same injury luck, and that may not happen two years in a row. A couple of key injuries (particularly if Glenn Dorsey's leg injuries get worse) could quickly turn this great defense into a good but not great defense, and that could be a death knell for LSU's chances to get to where they want to go. Will the LSU defense be able to stay healthy enough to fulfill its lofty expectations?

(4) For a team with such high expectations, LSU has a good deal of changes on the coaching staff, and they all come on the offensive side of the ball. Long-time offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher went to Florida State for the same position, and offensive line coach Stacey Searels went to Georgia for the same position. Moreover, wide receivers coach Todd Monken went to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he, too, assumes the same position. And, well, that leaves a lot of big question marks for an offense that already has quite a few question marks as it is (see questions one and two). Gary Crowton is the new offensive coordinator, and no one really knows what he is going to bring. If it's anything like he showed at Oregon or BYU, though, it's going to be nothing like LSU has ran before. And who knows how the wide receivers and offensive line will adjust to new coaches (D.J. McCarthy and Greg Studrawa) and, likely, new techniques? Generally speaking, the LSU offense has a good deal of talent, but aside from raw talent, there are a lot of question marks, and three new offensive coaches only highlight that underlying reality. Will the LSU offense be able to successfully integrate the coaching changes and still be productive, or will the very high volume of coaching turnover be just one more obstacle that will keep them from replicating the offense's successes of a year ago?

Mississippi State

(1) Believe it or not, Mississippi State did something down the stretch in 2006 that it hadn't done in a long time: they played competitive football. After playing West Virginia tough for three quarters, they blew out Jacksonville State. After that, they lost a heartbreaker to 9-4 Georgia, in Athens, after a game-ending fumble that occurred at the Georgia 23, well within field goal range. After that, it was another hearbreaking three-point loss, this time to 8-4 Kentucky. From there, we know what happened, they became a crimson nightmare, and got Mike Shula fired in the process. A week later, they out-gained 10-4 Arkansas by 100 yards, but lost a close game largely due to special teams breakdowns. In the season finale, they out-gained Ole Miss by over 100 yards, in Oxford, before losing another heartbreaker on a special teams breakdown. Can Mississippi State carry that competitive play into 2007, or will it be a half-year aberration?

(2) The Mississippi State offense must have Chad Henig stay healthy, no questions there. Another injury to Henig is simply an unacceptable scenario for the Dawgs if they want to do well offensively in 2007. The question is, even if Henig can stay healthy, can they consistently produce yards and points?

(3) Despite competitive play a year ago in the second half of the season, special teams play really doomed Mississippi State, specifically with a kick return for a touchdown from Arkansas, and a game-winning punt return for a touchdown against Ole Miss. Beyond that, all in all, they simply weren't good in terms of special teams in 2006. Will special teams improve, or will they again be the final blow to Mississippi State's chances of winning close games?

(4) The Mississippi State defense has more question marks than a mystery novel, and even their faithful are very concerned over it. Quentin Culbertson is gone, and there are some question marks at linebacker. The defensive line, despite having Titus Brown (one of the most underrated players around) has no real depth or experience, and it is likely to give up some massive rushing days. Even the secondary is unsettled with position changes. Will the Mississippi State defense be able to form and produce a good enough effort to give their team as a whole a chance to win games?

Ole Miss

(1) Seth Adams is the starter at quarterback, no real doubt about it. Brent Schaeffer, the savior from a year ago, will be the back-up, and Johnny Reb will sink or swim with Mr. Adams Adams. And, believe it or not, Adams has a decent unit around him, particularly in the backfield, and he looked good in Spring practice. Can Adams consistently lead the Ole Miss offense to a decent amount of yards and points points, all the while protecting the football, or will he implode in a Schaeffer-esque meltdown of no production and costly turnovers?

(2) The Rebels are, objectively speaking, about the youngest team in the conference, and last year they played a scary amount of true freshmen. But, you have to give credit where its due, a lot of the young guys showed some raw talent in 2006. Obviously, much of Ole Miss' overall success will be directly linked to how quickly can their young players can develop into quality, SEC-caliber players. So, will the young Rebels be able to make the quick leap from young to quality, experienced football players in the course of less than two years?

(3) Patrick Willis was arguably the best defensive player in the country last year, and he was really the key to what little defensive successes the Rebels had. Obviously, Willis has now moved on to the next level, and Ole Miss must find a replacement. Can Ole Miss find a remotely similar replacement, or will they suffer from what Alabama fans may call Demeco Ryans Replacement Syndrome?

(4) Aside from Patrick Willis' linebacker position, there are ten other defensive positions that are just as important. Unfortunately, the Rebs generally didn't fare too well at those positions last year, and they lose a lot of those starters to graduation for the 2007 season. True, it's not like they lose any great players, but nonetheless they still have to rebuild. Can the replacements play to a productive-enough level to where the Rebels will have a chance to improve upon 4-8 and challenge for a small bowl game, or will defensive miscues be the ultimate factor in dooming the Rebels to a fourth straight losing season?

2007 Roster Released

Finally, the 2007 roster has been released at RollTide.com.

I wanted to track the weight changes a bit, and that has been relatively interesting stuff. Generally speaking, guys who needed to get bigger have generally done so, and those that needed to trim down have seemingly done so as well.

A few notes on that front:

• D.J. Hall, who nearly everyone pointed out needed to get more physical, gained 9 pounds, going from 186 to 195.
  

• Jimmy Johns is bigger than ever, up 6 pounds to 233 pounds. No, those rumors of him being up to 250 are obviously incorrect, but he's big, to say the least. I don't think I can ever recall us having a true tailback at over 230 pounds, not in a while at least.
  

• Prince Hall has apparently made major strides, thinning down big time, as all had hoped he would. He has apparently trimmed off 20 pounds, going from 255 to 235.
  

• Justin Woodall, too, has made major strides, going from 213 pounds to 224 pounds. He's legitimately big enough to play linebacker now, but if he stays at safety he is going to be as physical as they come. Just another reason as to why I think he gets a starting job this year.

• Justin Britt has trimmed down by six pounds. Not too surprising considering a lot of people thought dropping a few pounds would help him in pass protection.
  

• Glen Coffee apparently lost a ton of weight. The 2006 roster has him at 225 pounds, but the 2007 roster has him at only 197 pounds. That's a loss of 28 pounds, and unless that is a typo, that is very odd.
  

• B.J. Stabler has apparently gotten in shape, big-time. He was never regarded as a "workout warrior" before, but if the rosters are accurate, that has changed. He has dropped 13 pounds, going from 307 to 294. Big strides from him, and that will certainly make it much easier for him to play right tackle, if that needs to be the case.
  

• Andre Smith has dropped a much needed eight pounds, going from 348 to 340. That's good news, as it could put his actual playing weight around 330-335 during the season itself, so that's definitely good news for us, and well, bad news for everyone else.

• Marlon Davis has really busted his tail in the S&C program, apparently, as he's dropped a full 21 pounds. He has went from 311 to 290.
  

• Mike McCoy has also leaned down big time. 'BamaMag ran an article a couple of weeks ago about how players felt he was really going to surprise this year, and how he had made massive strides in the S&C program. According to the rosters, he has dropped 18 pounds, going from 217 to 199. Apparently he's dropped a lot of weight and got in great shape.
  

• Earl Alexander has gotten bigger, as you would expect from someone with a 6'4 frame. He's gained nine pounds, going from 201 to 210.

• Nick Walker has dropped a good bit of weight, going down 15 pounds from 270 to 255. I think it shows that the coaching staff now is looking for a more nimble guy at tight end who can be a legitimate receiving threat.
  

• Preston Dial, too, has trimmed down big-time. He has dropped 17 pounds, going from 240 to 223. At 223 pounds, I don't see him at tight end. I'm imagining that the coaching staff has him pegged for the H-back position. He certainly has the athleticism from that spot to be a threat.
  

• Lorenzo Washington has bulked up a good bit, gaining 14 pounds. He went up from 269 to 283. He's still too small for defensive tackle, but he could play end quite well at that weight.
  

• Brandon Fanney dropped a ton of weight, as expected. He has moved from the defensive line to the Jack position, and has dropped 12 pounds. He has went from 253 to 241. Not too surprising, I don't believe.
  

All in all, it seems to be very positive stuff from the off-season S&C program. Guys who needed to get bigger generally got bigger, and guys who needed to trim down generally got smaller. It's good news, on the surface. I can't recall us ever making leaps like this in the S&C program under Shula.

Finally, the incoming freshmen have also been added to the roster, so I'll go ahead and post the reporting weights for a few players:

• Rolando McClain reported as the absolute beast that everyone expected. It's no secret he had been following the Saban workout regimen religiously with his own personal trainer, and it shows. He showed up at 6'4 and 255 pounds, and everything I have seen has people gushing over his condition. Much like how Jimmy Johns blew everyone away a couple of years ago.
  

• Luther Davis reported at 6'4 and 275 pounds. That's good news, to say the least. At 275 pounds, he could easily see playing time at defensive end this year.
  

• Alfred McCullough apparently gained a good bit of weight from the end of his senior season, and reported at 317 pounds.
  

• Josh Chapman, too, showed up at a nice weight, coming in at 300 pounds.
  

• Patrick Crump will almost certainly be headed for a redshirt year. He showed up at 267 pounds, and that's not near big enough to play on the offensive line. Not that he was expected to anyway, but the point remains the same.
  

All in all, it's pretty good news. The defensive linemen generally showed up in good shape. Considering McCullough and Chapman reported at 300 pounds and above, it's likely due to lack of depth alone that they will be destined to play this year. And the same largely goes for Luther Davis as well.

And Rolando McClain looks like he could start from day one.

Seemingly a good news day all the way around.

Clarification: Medical Scholarships

Coach Saban announced earlier today that four players had been placed on medical scholarship: Tyrone Prothro, Byron Walton, Jake Jones, and Aaron McDaniel.

But exactly what does "medical scholarship" mean in real terms? Essentially it means their football days are over.

Coach Saban specifically said:

[W]hen we put guys in these situations, the medical staff is 99.9 percent sure that this is a long-term issue that we are dealing with and it would be unusual that a guy could ever come back.

So, basically, as said earlier, it means in real terms that neither Prothro, Walton, Jones, or McDaniel will ever play football at Alabama again.

Jones had re-occurring leg injuries (no specifics), and McDaniel apparently blew out his knee very badly in the 2006 Arkansas game (missed that one). Prothro has the obvious leg injury, and apparently Byron Walton had some very serious heat-related issues. Saban had this to say:

"This is the one that I really don’t want to get involved with because I don’t know the technical names of this. I think you should ask the medical staff about that one. But this was a heat-related issue that has been reoccurring for him since high school. When he exerted himself at the level that he would have to to condition and do the things that you need to do here, he put himself at tremendous risk. And he actually had issues in the summer conditioning program, went through some tremendous lab work and there is a name for this. It’s not an unusual thing but he would have been in danger of having a heat-related problem or a physical exertion related problem moving forward. And it has something to do with how your muscles break down and how your body dissipates that and how it affects your kidneys and liver with serious issue."

Sounds like very scary stuff. Though I cannot help but wonder why the medical staff didn't notice this when he came out of high school.

Roster Notes

Finally... The University of Alabama football team has reported by Fall practice. As expected, we found out several things as a result. The following is an incomplete list of things we know thus far:

• Tyrone Prothro has been moved to a medical scholarship, and thus will not count against the maximum of 85 scholarships. He can return to play football at a later date, however. According to Nick Saban, there is a plan in place, and if -- and it's reasons like this as to why they say if is the biggest word in the English language -- he can become healthy again, he will get a sixth year of eligibility from the NCAA and be able to play again. For now, though, he will miss all of 2007 and be on a medical scholarship.
  

• Michael Ricks did not qualify, contrary to his own reports. As a result, he will not be playing for Alabama this year, or at any point in the future. I imagine we as a whole should stop trusting the specifics of what he says.
  

• Johnathon Lowe, the shifty kick returner transfer from Mississippi Stat who was expected to return some kicks this year, is academically ineligible, and will not play in the 2007 season. No word one way or the other on his future, though I would imagine he would stay with the team and try to regain his eligibility.
  

• Ezekiel Knight has been given a medical hardship waiver, and will thus be a junior, not a senior. This is huge news for us, because Knight, with the extra year, will likely take over for Keith Saunders at the Jack position when Keith graduates after the 2007 season.
  

• Darren Mustin, the walk-on transfer Mike from Middle Tennessee State, has been moved to a scholarship. We will still, however, be under the limit of 85. Congratulations on a job well done, Darren.
  

• Byron Walton, a freshman defensive tackle, has also been moved to a medical scholarship. All that is said now for a reason is "heat-related issues," so I have no clue on this one. I was not expecting him to play very much, but I certainly was not expecting this. Apparently it was a major problem that could have serious repercussions, so he is on the shelf for 2007.
  

• Jake Jones, a freshman wide receiver out of Mountain Brook (and son of former Tide legend Joey Jones), has also been moved to a medical scholarship. It is listed as leg related, but again I have no clue. He missed all of Spring and all of summer workouts with the same affliction, but I have no clue as what is precisely wrong.
  

• Nick Gentry, the 2007 signee from Prattville, will start Fall practice rehabilitating a shoulder injury that required surgery, and will not partake in team drills. In other words, he'll likely redshirt this year, and coaches will try to figure out where to play him. The injury is a high school injury that the coaching staff and the Alabama medical staff advised him to have corrected via a surgical procedure. Again, most likely it means a redshirt is on the way for Mr. Gentry.
  

• Terry Grant was not mentioned as getting a medical hardship waiver. I fully expect him to be granted one, but as of this point, it has not been officially indicated.
  

• Kerry Murphy, as expected, did not qualify, and will now enroll at Hargrave in the coming weeks. Hopefully he can become eligible and return to the Tide next Fall. Lord knows we could use him at defensive tackle.
  

• Ross Applegate has transferred to Alabama. Applegate is a 6'5, 197 pound freshman quarterback who had committed to Boston College a year ago. He is from Marietta, Georgia, and is now with the Tide. No reason as to why he transferred.
  

Apparently the roster will be posted in the coming days on RollTide.com, so we'll see if there are any more changes, but for now that is it.

Roster Screengrab: Just In Case

Members of The University of Alabama football will officially report tomorrow on Thursday.

One word, when hyphenated, comes to mind: Whoo-Hoo!

When the players report, they will be given numbers, so that will end speculation on that front. I know it's pointless, but I always enjoy seeing who gets what. But anyway...

Moreover, and more importantly, a new roster should be forthcoming, and hopefully that new roster will also include official weights. Now don't get me wrong, I understand the pitfalls of "official" weights, but it will be nice to compare the two if they do actually update the player weights.

Obviously, it could give us a big clue as to the strides we've apparently been making in the strength and conditioning program. No doubt about, if we are to improve, first and foremost we must get bigger, faster, and in better condition, and that could give us an initial indicator of the progress we are making.

So, just in case they do update the weights, etc., I took a Screengrab of the 2007 Spring roster so we will have something to compare it to if the new roster contains all of those updates.

Hopefully they will update everything in the next few days, and that will give us some concrete information as to the gains that individual players have made in the S&C program.

New Rule Set For Massive Impact

You may or may not have heard about it yet, but there is a new rule change in college football for the 2007 season. Kick-offs, which had previously taken place from the kicking team's 35-yard line, will now be moved back to the kicking team's 30-yard line.

On the surface, that may seem like the textbook definition of a minor, insignificant change. But you would be very wrong.

In fact, Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks was quoted as saying, "It’s going to be one of the most significant rule changes to come about in recent years, maybe in a decade in college football."

So how exactly will it change things? Well, Coach Brooks had something to say on that as well. Specifically, he had the following musings:

"You’re gonna see offenses starting with a lot better field position. You’re gonna see scoring averages go up because of this rule change. You’re gonna see a lot more gimmicks on kickoff coverage. By gimmicks I’m talking with pooch kicking, possible squib kicking. There may be some people that decide they want to kick it out of bounds and give it to the team on the 35-yard line rather than kicking it deep and having a return out to the 40 or 45."

Florida Coach Urban Meyer later agreed with Rich Brooks' comments. In fact, he specifically mentioned a study that has concluded that the average kick-off will now be fielded at the nine-yard line.

Georgia Coach Mark Richt even went as far as stating that last year his team returned approximately 25 per cent of all kick-offs, but that now he expects his team to return somewhere between 75 and 90 per cent of all kick-offs.

The are no two ways about it. This rule change may seem minor on the surface, but it is not. This is a massive rule change that will have a massive effect.

So exactly what will be the end result?

Well, I don't know for certain, of course, but we can speculate to a great degree about what the effect be.

For starters, at Mark Richt noted, a much higher percentage of kicks will be returned in 2007. In fact, it will be very much a rarity for a kick to not be returned, and honestly it will still even be a rare occurrence when kicks are not returned even when a great distance kicker is handling the kick-off duties.

Moreover, the starting field position is, of course, going to be much higher. Considering historically the average kick return generally hovers somewhere between twenty and twenty-five yards per return -- if the Meyer-referenced study is correct in their projection that the average kick will be fielded at the nine-yard line -- the average starting position for teams will be somewhere between the twenty-nine and thirty-four yard lines. And again, that's just the average. Teams that struggle in kick coverage and kick distance will routinely see opponent's starting beyond their own forty-yard line.

The better field position, of course, will also greatly increase the chances of scoring. It goes without saying that the further advanced the ball is, the greater the odds of scoring are. For example, take this into consideration: When the NFL kicked off from the 35-yard line, teams that got the ball first in overtime won 50% of the time, and teams that kicked won 50% of the time. When they moved the kick-off back five yards to the 30-yard line, however, it made a big difference. Since then, teams that get the ball first in overtime win 60% of the time, and teams that kicked won only 40% of the time. Again, moving the ball five yards further back can make a massive difference in the chances that the receiving team will score on the ensuing possession because the odds are scoring are much higher due to better field position.

And, of course, the greater chances of scoring on each drive following a kick-off will result in higher scoring games. In 2006, the average SEC team scored 20.6 points per game, and that number is likely to creep up towards, if not beyond, 22 points per game in 2007.

Coaches, as alluded to earlier by Rich Brooks, will compensate in a variety of ways. To begin with, we'll see more pooch kicks and squib kicks, and we'll see much more complex kick cover schemes in an attempt to limit returns. In the past, kick cover schemes have often times been pretty vanilla, but that is likely a thing of the past now. Beyond that, you are almost certainly going to be see much better players on special teams. In the past, many coaches have opted for lesser players (often freshmen and others buried on the depth chart) when composing their special teams unit, but 2007 will see, generally speaking, much higher quality players on both the kick coverage and kick return teams. The much higher potential reward / potential loss simply dictates that coaches will be forced to take more risk in that sense.

Of course, having better players on special teams will impact the rest of the game in yet another big way: injuries. It's no secret that the two most dangerous plays in all of football are the kick-off and the punt (massive men hitting each other at top speed, going in opposite directions, you do the math). And with much better players on special teams, it's inevitable that those much better players will occasionally get hurt. Again, that could make a huge difference when, for example, a star player who before 2007 wouldn't have even been playing special teams goes down for the year with a torn ACL on a kick-off. Say, for a more concrete example, Demeco Ryans would have broken his ankle covering a kick against Southern Miss in 2005, when he would have otherwise been sippin' Gatorade on the sideline; exactly how do you think that would have impacted our season? I'm pretty sure you get my point now. The injury impact of the move could be very significant, and likely will be very significant for the unfortunate few teams that lose a key player in the process.

All told, it's going to greatly emphasize both kick coverage and kick returns. Both coaches and players are going to focus greatly on kick coverage and kick returns, and you'll quickly see the difference when you watch games either on television or at the stadium.

The bottom line is this: teams that can cover kicks and return kicks well will be in great shape, and teams that can't cover kicks very well or return kicks very well are going to find themselves losing a lot of football games.

This is a major rule change, and it will have a massive overall impact. How well each team adjusts its performance to the rule change will likely have a significant impact on the team's final win-loss record. At bottom, if you are looking for a good season in 2007, you had better get your kick-off team in tip-top shape, or it's going to be a tough road to hoe.