Saturday, August 4, 2007

The SEC East: 24 Questions

We've looked at the SEC West. So now we turn to the SEC East...

Every team has questions marks. And how those question marks are resolved is largely the determining factor in the overall quality and level of success of a football team. So, six SEC East teams, four questions each. Twenty-four questions:

Florida

(1) Despite bringing home the crystal trophy in 2006, Florida wasn't particularly good on the offensive side of the ball. Oh, sure, they weren't bad, but they certainly weren't anything special. Chris Leak is gone, and now Tim Tebow is going to have to be much more than a glorified fullback and the key cog of a bunch of trick plays. The Gators don't really return that many starters on offense, but they are, without doubt, very talented. Can the Florida offense step it up in Meyer's third year and take off in terms of point production, or is another so-so year on the horizon?

(2) The Florida running game has not been particularly good since Meyer arrived in Gainesville. They have talented players, as expected, but that hasn't turned into production. Honestly, Tim Tebow in 2006 was the best running threat the Gators have had to date, and that needs to change. We'll see if Kestahn Moore, Chris Rainey, and others to turn this running game into something special. Will the Florida running game become one of the best in the conference, or will it be another mediocre year for the Meyer backfield in Gainesville?

(3) As said earlier, the Florida offense wasn't particularly good in 2006, and it was without doubt the Florida defense that brought the crystal trophy back to Gainesville. Problem is, the Gators are in for a major rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball, as only two starters return. At bottom, it's very young and inexperienced, though talented. If Florida wants to get anywhere near where they want to go, this defense is going to have to get it together and be productive quickly. Can the Florida defense quickly congeal and be near as productive of a unit as the Gators had in 2006?

(4) Without running the numbers, I imagine the place-kicking for Florida last year was the worst of any national champion in ages. Chris Hetland was only 4-13 overall, and was only 1-10 in kicks of 30 yards or more. Yet, somehow, the place-kicking woes didn't cost the Gators too much in 2006. Hetland is gone now, though, and a new face will be handing the place-kicking duties. Considering the extreme importance of accurate place-kicking in close games, will Florida be able to find a consistently successful place-kicker when it counts in 2007?

Georgia

(1) Matt Stafford returns for year number two, and the Bulldogs will sink or swim with him. He looked terrible part of last year, and then played pretty good football down the stretch. UGA will need him to do the latter if they expect any real success in 2007. Though Stafford is still at least a year or so away from peak performance, he still needs to have a good season in terms of both production and protecting the football. Can Matt Stafford continue to improve on the solid finish to his 2006 season, or will he regress into another Georgia nightmare of incompletions and interceptions?

(2) Aside from Stafford, there are some other uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball. The team's leading receiver from a year ago, Martrez Milner, is gone, and so are both offensive tackles, who were the key cogs to the Dawgs pass protection. The receiving corps, too, is a question mark. It's talented, but has some injury concerns and as a whole has never been particularly consistent. How well will Georgia be able to replace the tight end and the tackles, and will the receiving corps be able to stay healthy and consistently productive?

(3) Surprisingly enough, after we did a thorough analysis off the 2006 SEC pass rushes, Georgia didn't do particularly well. Despite having two of the best rush ends in the country -- Quentin Moses and Charles Johnson -- they finished only fifth in the conference in Adjusted Sacks. Considering both of those players have now moved on to the NFL, there should be legitimate worries over the effectiveness of the Dawgs 2007 pass rush. Will Georgia be able to handle the losses of Moses and Johnson and still effectively rush the passer, or will the Dawgs be giving opposing quarterbacks all day to throw?

(4) Defensive line aside, the Georgia defense as a whole is staring down the barrel of a massive rebuilding job. All told, they only return three starters on defense, and the defensive back seven will be almost wholly new. Considering the UGA pass rush may not be particularly good, will the defensive back seven be able to quickly replace starters from a year ago and form an effective unit?

Kentucky

(1) Despite a lot of firepower at the offensive skill positions, the Wildcat offensive line is a bit of a mess. The left side is perhaps okay, but the center position and the right side of the offensive line is in trouble. There is no depth to the group, and a true freshman (Stuart Hines) is likely to start at right tackle. Will the Kentucky offensive line be good enough to allow all of the of the firepower at the skill positions to take off and rack up a lot of yardage and points?

(2) Despite an overall powerful offense last year, Kentucky wasn't particularly good in the red zone, and had some definite problems. No, they weren't Alabama bad in that sense, but they weren't particularly good either. As Alabama fans saw in 2006, it doesn't really matter how well you move the ball if you stall out inside the 20. Will the Kentucky offense put its 2006 red zone problems aside, or will they continue and be a major roadblock in their quest for back-to-back bowl appearances?

(3) The defensive line is a major problem for the Wildcats. Two projected starters, Josh Minton and Ventrell Jenkins, are unlikely to be able to play this year due to injuries, and overall the unit just lacks depth. Moreover, they get no real help from the incoming recruiting class, where arguably the only player ready to perform at an SEC-caliber level, DJ Stafford, did not qualify academically. Can the Kentucky defense play respectable football, or will they be torn to shreds by quality offensive lines?

(4) Kentucky was one of the worst teams in the conference last year in terms of pass defense, and a variety of metrics here at Outside The Sidelines have confirmed that. Though much of the defensive backfield returns, they have a lot of progress to make. Will the Kentucky secondary be able to produce a semi-effective pass defense, or will opposing teams continue to throw effectively at will?

South Carolina

(1) Blake Mitchell could probably be the textbook example of the usual love / hate relationship that Steve Spurrier has with his quarterbacks. He looked surprisingly good for most of 2005, then flopped in early 2006, which landed him a spot on the bench, and that suddenly rebounded to close the year. If Mitchell plays like he did late in 2006, South Carolina could have a potent offense, but if not, they are likely in big trouble. Much like with Georgia and Matt Stafford, which players shows up in 2007?

(2) Mitchell aside, the major question mark to the Gamecock offense is the offensive line, which includes replacing the center and the two starting guards from a year ago. Though their appears to be plenty of talent at the skill positions, it will all go for not if the Gamecocks lose the battle in the trenches. Will the offensive line be good enough to allow Blake Mitchell and the other skill position players to rack up big yardage and points?

(3) The South Carolina, secondary, without doubt, has a good deal of talent and a good deal of potential. The defensive front seven for the Gamecocks is about as good as you'll find anywhere, and if the secondary can step up and live up to its talent, it could turn this defense into one of the best in the nation. Can the secondary take a step forward and turn this defense into a true shutdown defense?

(4) South Carolina is not without talent, but in terms of depth, they probably still aren't as deep as the big boys of the SEC. Spurrier has done a fine job in recruiting, but it takes time and South Carolina is still not as deep, from top-to-bottom of the depth chart, as are some other SEC teams. And that will be a major problem if injuries arise for the Gamecocks. While they should still be pretty good, if injuries arise you can pretty much cancel out any chance of an appearance in Atlanta. Can South Carolina get the injury luck needed to not have to rely greatly on their depth chart and thus make a push for Atlanta?

Tennessee

(1) Tennessee loses the three leading receivers from their high octane passing attack of 2006, and they will have a lot of young guys with little experience at wide-out this season. Granted, Erik Ainge is a fine quarterback, but the Tennessee passing offense is never going to take off like it did a year ago unless those young receivers can step up and play good football. Can the youthful Tennessee receivers step up and play good football, allowing Ainge to replicate his successes of a year ago, or will inconsistent play at the wide-out position result in a drop-off in the passing attack?

(2) Offensive Coordinator David Cutcliffe is wanting to get back a power running game at Tennessee, and that didn't work in 2006. Despite a lot of talent at tailback, the offensive line wasn't particularly suited for that job, but another year will help their development. Can the Tennessee rushing attack be as powerful as it was on days gone by, or will it be another poor rushing attack for the Vols, who will have to hope that Ainge and company can get it done through the air?

(3) The Tennessee defensive line has a few key replacements to make. However, they do have several very talented and experienced players from which to make those replacements (such as Demonte Bolden, Antonio Reynolds, etc.). The only problem is, none of those guys have ever played that all. To paraphrase an old saying, they look like Tarzan but have played like Jane. Much like a lot of the Tennessee roster the past few years, thus far they have been great players who have never lived up to their potential. Will those defensive linemen finally play up to their potential and create a top-notch defensive line?

(4) The Vol secondary returns Jonathon Hefney, who is a great player. Aside from that, it's a major question mark, and the other three sports are up for grabs. We don't know who will grab them just yet, but whoever it will be will generally be very young and inexperienced plays. Can the young Vol secondary form around Hefney and produce an effective pass defense, or will they struggle in terms of pass defense again in 2007?

Vanderbilt

(1) Chris Nickson surprised most in 2006 with his performance in replacing Jay Cutler. However, Nickson's game did leave a lot to be desired, and he was very inconsistent at times. He had some big games (mainly Florida and Kentucky), but in nine games he failed to throw for more than 150 yards. All told, Nickson has to be consistently better all across the board. Will Nickson's overall performance improve, or will he continue to be the boom and bust quarterback that he was in 2006?

(2) Cassen Jackson-Garrison is a pretty talented running back. He has good size, and is a pretty good runner. Unfortunately, last year the Vanderbilt offense was built solely upon either Chris Nickson passing or running around with the ball. Garrison did well at times, but never really got the ball, as he saw more than 18 carries only once all season. If Vanderbilt is to be effective in 2007, they have to actually develop a running game, and it has to be more than just Chris Nickson. Will Cassen Jackson-Garrison be given the opportunity to create a legitimate running game, or will it be The Chris Nickson Show: Part II?

(3) Earl Bennett had a good year in 2006, but it was very streaky. He had more than three times as many catches as the team's second leading receiver, and more than three times as many yards as well. Problem was, as noted earlier, his production was inconsistent at best. The majority of his production came in four games, and in the other eight games he often times struggled to make an impact. For the Vanderbilt passing game to take off, aside from better play from Nickson, it needs Earl Bennett to become more consistent. Can Earl Bennett consistently put up big numbers in 2007, or will it be the same boom and bust as of 2006?

(4) The Vanderbilt pass defense in 2006 was simply terrible, no two ways about it. It was, with almost no doubt, the worst in the conference. They have some experienced players returning in 2007, but this unit still has to improve by leaps and bounds. Considering the front seven should be pretty good, if this unit can even put together a relatively decent performance, the Vanderbilt defense should be fairly good. Will the Vanderbilt secondary play relatively well and create a solid overall defense, or will atrocious pass defense ruin an otherwise solid defense for the second year in a row?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Florida will have problems on offense. I expect them to fall at least twice this year.