Friday, August 3, 2007

The SEC West: 24 Questions

Every team has questions marks. And how those question marks are resolved is largely the determining factor in the overall quality and level of success of a football team. So, six SEC West teams, four questions each. Twenty-four questions:

Alabama

(1) The offensive line struggled a year ago, to put it mildly. However, everyone returns, and the old coaching techniques have been ditched. The S&C program is much more difficult under Saban, and the offensive linemen have reported in much better physical condition than a year ago. It's almost a given that the line will improve, but how much? Will they go from poor to mediocre, or will they emerge as one of the best offensive lines in the conference?

(2) The running game last year was quite bad, likely the worst since 1993. Ken Darby is gone, though that is unlikely to be a major loss, and there are several backs who may seize the starting job, including Jimmy Johns, Glen Coffee, Roy Upchurch, Terry Grant, and Demetrius Goode. Which one(s) will step up, and how effective will they be in carrying the running game?

(3) The Crimson Tide defense definitely has some talent, but is generally young and inexperienced. Notably, several true freshman expect to see a good bit of meaningful playing time in conference play, including Rolando McClain (LB), Kareem Jackson (CB), Alfred McCullough (DT), Josh Chapman (DT), and Luther Davis (DE). And some other young players, such as Justin Woodall, will likely start. All told, for better or for worse, the performance of the younger players will go a long way to determining the overall quality of the defense. Exactly how will those players perform, and how will the defense as a whole perform with several young and inexperienced players in the line-up?

(4) In terms of special teams, Alabama was one of the worst teams in the conference last year. We struggled with place-kicking, punting, kick-offs, punt coverage, and kick coverage. There were really no bright spots, for the most part. And with the new rule change on kick-offs, special teams figure to be more important than ever. With a new coaching staff in place, and a new special teams coach (Ron Middleton), how will the special teams perform?

Auburn

(1) The Tigers must rebuild their offensive line for 2007, which is a bit of a concern considering the Auburn offense was mediocre at best in 2006. The Tommy Tuberville offenses are generally built mainly around an effective power running game, and everything else works off that once it has been established. Obviously, power running games only work effectively with good blocking from the big uglies. Will the new starters be able to replicate the success of the Auburn offensive lines from the past three years?

(2) Offensively, at the skill positions, proven talent is very short on the Plains. Courtney Taylor and Kenny Irons are both gone, and there are really no proven skill position players. At tailback, the two leaders are Brad Lester and Ben Tate, but both are unproven. Brad Lester looked okay last year, but racked up most of his yardage against inferior opponents, and was generally a moderately successful boom or bust back (occasional long run, but overall a very low Running Back Success Rate). Ben Tate, on the other hand, never really had a meaningful carry all year, and racked up his yardage against the Sisters of the Poor. At wide receiver, neither Rodgerigus Smith or Prechae Rodriguez were particularly good last year, and they both need to make major strides in 2007. Will the offensive skill position players step up and give Auburn an explosive threat, or will they be in for another mediocre year on offense?

(3) Though defensive end Quentin Groves returns, Auburn did lose their best cornerback, David Irons? Auburn had a decent pass defense in 2006, but nothing particularly good, finish sixth in the conference in opposing quarterback passer rating. Will the loss of Irons spell a mediocre, or perhaps worse, year for the pass defense, or will we see some improvement and really see the Auburn defense blossom into one of the best in the country?

(4) Auburn loses both specialty kickers, place-kicker John Vaugn, and punter Kody Bliss. Vaughn was arguably the best kicker in the conference when not playing LSU, and Bliss was without doubt the best punter in the conference. Their replacements will have big shoes to fill to say the least. Can the new Auburn kicker win games that come down to place-kicking, and can the new punter keep the field position battles tilted in his team's favor?

Arkansas

(1) The Mitch Mustain Melodrama has headed West, but quarterback play is still a major issue for the Hogs. Casey Dick will be the starter, but Dick has never looked particularly good in the past, even with arguably the best running game in the country at his disposal. He's generally played like, well, dick. Regardless of how good McFadden and Jones are, it's going to be quite tough for them to really take off with no effective passing game. So, how will Dick and the passing game develop in 2007?

(2) The Hogs had arguably the best offensive line in the conference in 2007, but it must now be almost completely rebuilt from top-to-bottom. Of course, offensive line play is key to the running game, and even with fantastic backs, you aren't going to have a great running game if your offensive line is struggling. Considering the absolute necessity that the Arkansas running game being great in 2007 (due to a likely poor passing game), can the inexperienced Arkansas offensive line congeal and produce like their predecessors so that McFadden and Jones can make for a truly great Arkansas rushing attack?

(3) Two starters from last year's defensive line, Keith Jackson and Jamaal Anderson, are gone. The two returning starters are also questionable. Antwain Robinson (of Andre Smith fame) was arrested for theft in a local Dillard's department store, and Marcus Harrison is still hurting from a Spring knee injury that resulted in torn cartilage and a bone bruise. He missed the rest of Spring, and nearly all off-season conditioning work, and will likely miss the season opener as well. Can the Arkansas defensive line be as stout as last year, or are they in for a long year of getting shoved around by opposing big uglies?

(4) Defensive line worries aside, the Arkansas defense loses quite a bit in the back seven, including leader Sam Olajabutu, and star cornerback Chris Houston, among others. Can the Hogs quickly rebuild the back seven, in light of defensive line concerns, or will inexperienced players yield a relatively poor overall defense?

LSU

(1) Matt Flynn is a fifth-year senior, and the Bayou Bengals will sink or swim with him. His health is a concern, but it's not a question mark. If he goes down for any significant time, LSU is unlikely to get anywhere near where they want to go, no real uncertainty about that. In reality, the question mark surrounds a single fact: he has never really played before. He may be good, he may be poor. He's only seen meaningful playing time once in his career, in the 2005 Peach Bowl. There he did well with the help of a great rushing attack against an ACC team of questionable quality (Miami). To be quite frank, to this point, his resume is exactly like that of former Alabama quarterback Brian Burgdorf. If you don't recall, Burgdorf signed with Alabama in the early 1990's, but never played because of the presence of Jay Barker. Finally, after Barker tore his ACL against Auburn in 1993, Burgdorf took over for the Gator Bowl, and went 15-23 for 166 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, plus 6 carries for another 48 yards and a touchdown, leading the Tide to a win over an ACC team of questionable quality (North Carolina). It was his only legitimate playing time, and people had high hopes for when he finally assumed the starting job. Of course, Burgdorf, when he finally assumed the starting job as a fifth-year senior in 1995, only after Barker graduated, was a complete flop, and quickly found his way to the bench. Will Matt Flynn be good enough to get the job done, or will he fade away in the spotlight, and become the LSU version of Brian Burgdorf?

(2) The LSU offensive line wasn't particularly good last year, and they really struggled in terms of run blocking. Their only saving grace was in pass protection, where an incredible deep threat passing game, and an almost un-sackable quarterback combined to make their life very easy. With Russell, Bowe, Davis, and offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher gone, the deep threat passing game is largely gone too. The new look under Gary Crowton will feature a lot of short passes, and should require a much improved running game, and all of that means the LSU offensive line must improve drastically if they want offensive production be as good as it was a year ago. Ciron Black and Brett Helms are good players, and so is Will Arnold (voted pre-season All-SEC), but even Les Miles isn't sure just how much Arnold can even practice, much less play, due to a variety of injuries that have plagued him the past couple of yearas. Worse still, the now-former offensive line coach Stacey Searels is gone to Georgia, and the line will have to adjust to new offensive line coach Greg Studrawa's blocking schemes. At bottom, is this line going to step up and give the rest of the LSU offense the full opportunity to get the most production possible, or is it going to remain so-so and force the Bayou Bengal faithful to hope that Matt Flynn is really that good and the rest of the skill position players can put points on the scoreboard, despite mediocre line play?

(3) The LSU defense should be good, no two ways about it. The loss of LaRon Landry and Jesse Daniels will hurt, but it should still be very good. However, last year, the Tiger defense was the epitome of great injury luck, as no starter missed any legitimate playing time. If LSU is to have that good of a defense again this year, they'll have to get the same injury luck, and that may not happen two years in a row. A couple of key injuries (particularly if Glenn Dorsey's leg injuries get worse) could quickly turn this great defense into a good but not great defense, and that could be a death knell for LSU's chances to get to where they want to go. Will the LSU defense be able to stay healthy enough to fulfill its lofty expectations?

(4) For a team with such high expectations, LSU has a good deal of changes on the coaching staff, and they all come on the offensive side of the ball. Long-time offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher went to Florida State for the same position, and offensive line coach Stacey Searels went to Georgia for the same position. Moreover, wide receivers coach Todd Monken went to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he, too, assumes the same position. And, well, that leaves a lot of big question marks for an offense that already has quite a few question marks as it is (see questions one and two). Gary Crowton is the new offensive coordinator, and no one really knows what he is going to bring. If it's anything like he showed at Oregon or BYU, though, it's going to be nothing like LSU has ran before. And who knows how the wide receivers and offensive line will adjust to new coaches (D.J. McCarthy and Greg Studrawa) and, likely, new techniques? Generally speaking, the LSU offense has a good deal of talent, but aside from raw talent, there are a lot of question marks, and three new offensive coaches only highlight that underlying reality. Will the LSU offense be able to successfully integrate the coaching changes and still be productive, or will the very high volume of coaching turnover be just one more obstacle that will keep them from replicating the offense's successes of a year ago?

Mississippi State

(1) Believe it or not, Mississippi State did something down the stretch in 2006 that it hadn't done in a long time: they played competitive football. After playing West Virginia tough for three quarters, they blew out Jacksonville State. After that, they lost a heartbreaker to 9-4 Georgia, in Athens, after a game-ending fumble that occurred at the Georgia 23, well within field goal range. After that, it was another hearbreaking three-point loss, this time to 8-4 Kentucky. From there, we know what happened, they became a crimson nightmare, and got Mike Shula fired in the process. A week later, they out-gained 10-4 Arkansas by 100 yards, but lost a close game largely due to special teams breakdowns. In the season finale, they out-gained Ole Miss by over 100 yards, in Oxford, before losing another heartbreaker on a special teams breakdown. Can Mississippi State carry that competitive play into 2007, or will it be a half-year aberration?

(2) The Mississippi State offense must have Chad Henig stay healthy, no questions there. Another injury to Henig is simply an unacceptable scenario for the Dawgs if they want to do well offensively in 2007. The question is, even if Henig can stay healthy, can they consistently produce yards and points?

(3) Despite competitive play a year ago in the second half of the season, special teams play really doomed Mississippi State, specifically with a kick return for a touchdown from Arkansas, and a game-winning punt return for a touchdown against Ole Miss. Beyond that, all in all, they simply weren't good in terms of special teams in 2006. Will special teams improve, or will they again be the final blow to Mississippi State's chances of winning close games?

(4) The Mississippi State defense has more question marks than a mystery novel, and even their faithful are very concerned over it. Quentin Culbertson is gone, and there are some question marks at linebacker. The defensive line, despite having Titus Brown (one of the most underrated players around) has no real depth or experience, and it is likely to give up some massive rushing days. Even the secondary is unsettled with position changes. Will the Mississippi State defense be able to form and produce a good enough effort to give their team as a whole a chance to win games?

Ole Miss

(1) Seth Adams is the starter at quarterback, no real doubt about it. Brent Schaeffer, the savior from a year ago, will be the back-up, and Johnny Reb will sink or swim with Mr. Adams Adams. And, believe it or not, Adams has a decent unit around him, particularly in the backfield, and he looked good in Spring practice. Can Adams consistently lead the Ole Miss offense to a decent amount of yards and points points, all the while protecting the football, or will he implode in a Schaeffer-esque meltdown of no production and costly turnovers?

(2) The Rebels are, objectively speaking, about the youngest team in the conference, and last year they played a scary amount of true freshmen. But, you have to give credit where its due, a lot of the young guys showed some raw talent in 2006. Obviously, much of Ole Miss' overall success will be directly linked to how quickly can their young players can develop into quality, SEC-caliber players. So, will the young Rebels be able to make the quick leap from young to quality, experienced football players in the course of less than two years?

(3) Patrick Willis was arguably the best defensive player in the country last year, and he was really the key to what little defensive successes the Rebels had. Obviously, Willis has now moved on to the next level, and Ole Miss must find a replacement. Can Ole Miss find a remotely similar replacement, or will they suffer from what Alabama fans may call Demeco Ryans Replacement Syndrome?

(4) Aside from Patrick Willis' linebacker position, there are ten other defensive positions that are just as important. Unfortunately, the Rebs generally didn't fare too well at those positions last year, and they lose a lot of those starters to graduation for the 2007 season. True, it's not like they lose any great players, but nonetheless they still have to rebuild. Can the replacements play to a productive-enough level to where the Rebels will have a chance to improve upon 4-8 and challenge for a small bowl game, or will defensive miscues be the ultimate factor in dooming the Rebels to a fourth straight losing season?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

These are going to be great to revisit periodically over the course of the season.

You've been doing great work. I've really been enjoying your blog. -- Lawboy

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I, too, would like to jump in and offer KuDOs for what a great xxxxing blog this is. It's a really awesome way to stave off my overwhelming eagerness for the start of the season. I would like to ask your opinion about why did Shula continue to play Capps and Darby so much, when they weren't carrying their weight last year? I read that Darby was having personal problems, but I don't think Saban would have done played him anyway. I think Saban won't let sentimentality interfere with choosing whatever the shrewdest, most productive course of action is. A good blog topic might be "playing for 60 minutes" and what that means, "the process" or some particular nick saban plays. I really liked a play that I saw in a close game between a Saban-coached LSU team and Kentucky game. Wow, the LSU team executed this end of game hail mary type play at the end of the 4th quarter to win it. Wow. That team never stopped playing. The Kentucky people were practically giving the team a standing ovation as if the game was over, and cool nick was still playing the game. That philosophy will be differenct, and I wonder how you think Saban's philosophies rank with maybe other coaches.

A fan of your blog.