Recruiting Analysis: 2002-2005

I usually try to take any research topic suggestions that I can get, and a good one came from a friend and reader of this blog. It's a pretty simple topic really: take every four and five star recruit that we have signed the past several years and see how they have panned out. He felt that we tended to get more quality players from two and three stars than from four and five stars.

So, let's look at it.

The Scout.com recruiting database goes back to the 2002, so let's start there. We'll go from 2002-2005, looking at each four and five star recruit that we have picked up in that four-year stretch, and then broke each one of them down individually.

All told, from 2002-2005, we signed fifteen four or five star recruits, according to Scout.com. They include:

Kyle Tatum
Chris Browder
David Scott
Derrick Pope
Jeremy Clark
Le'Ron McClain
Chris Felder
Matt Caddell
Dominic Lee
Chris Felder
Lorenzo Washington
B.J. Stabler
Nikita Stover
Brandon Deaderick
Mike Ford
Chris Keys
Brandon Fanney

So that's the total list. It includes fifteen guys over a four year period, fourteen of which four-star recruits, with one being a five-star recruit (Derrick Pope).

Now let's break them down individually:

Kyle Tatum was a four-star defensive line prospect out of Prattville. He was generally considered one of the top linemen in the state, and could have went anywhere in the country. He signed with Alabama, and then redshirted, as expected. He played as a redshirt freshman in 2003, and looked pretty good; people loved his intensity and his motor. Then, Shula moved him to right tackle, where he effectively fell into a black hole in 2004 and 2005. He started, but wasn't very good, and finally in 2006 he was apparently in Shula's doghouse, and that was the end of his career.

Chris Browder was a highly touted defensive end, rated as a four-star the 26th best defensive end in the country. He did not qualify academically, and went to junior college. He resurfaced a couple of years later with Auburn, but as far as I can tell never made any real impact.

David Scott was a four-star JUCO cornerback out of Mississippi. He signed with two years of eligibility, and played a fair amount as a nickel corner in both 2002 and 2003. It's not to say he was a bad player, but everyone thought he would be a true shutdown corner when he signed, and the truth was he never even became a starter.

Derrick Pope was a five-star JUCO linebacker, and he was as good as billed. He played great in 2002, and was about the only bright spot in 2003. The only problem was, as with most JUCO players, he was only here for two years.

Jeremy Clark was a four-star defensive line recruit out of Daphne, second only in the state to Kyle Tatum. And he started most of his career at Alabama, but he was never an impact player of any sort. At best, he was pretty mediocre, and the main reason he started was because of an overall lack of quality depth at the position.

Le'Ron McClain was a four-star running back recruit, and generally regarded as the top fullback in the country. He lived up to that expectation fully. He became qualified, started four years, and when he left was he was considered the best pure fullback in the country.

Matt Caddell was a four-star wide receiver recruit and a member of the vaunted triumvirate of receivers to come out of the state in 2003 (the other two were Chad Jackson and Jayson Swaine). Unfortunately, Caddell has struggled at Alabama, and has never developed into a consistent. He looked good as a freshman in 2004, especially considering the poor quarterback play that year, but he hasn't done anything since. He has made a few memorable catches (2004 LSU comes to mind), but generally struggled with tentative play and poor hands. Going into his senior season in 2006, he seems, at the very least, behind D.J. Hall, Keith Brown, and Nikita Stover on the depth chart.

Dominic Lee was a four-star recruit out of Huffman, and was generally considered the top defensive line prospect in the state. We signed him, and despite high expectations, he never did much of anything. He never became a consistent starter, and his best times were playing in the defensive tackle rotation as a back-up in 2005 and 2006. His biggest contributions to the Crimson Tide by far was the wooing of his cousin Andre Smith -- yes, that Andre Smith -- to sign with Alabama.

Chris Felder was a four-star cornerback recruit out of Thomasville, Alabama, and he was generally considered one the top cornerback prospects in the country (ranked 13th overall by Scout.com). Unfortunately, he did not qualify academically, and has seemingly fallen off the face of the Earth in terms of information regarding his where-abouts.

Lorenzo Washington was a four-star defensive line recruit generally considered one of the top defensive tackle prospects in the country (ranked 18th in the country by Scout.com), and he was a good student as well. Unfortunately, he shocked everyone by not qualifying, and when he returned after a tour of Hargrave, he didn't exactly set the world on fire. In his two years thus far at Alabama, he has yet to see any meaningful playing time, and has struggled to gain weight. At the moment -- barring major changes in Fall practice -- it is unlikely that he sees meaningful playing time this season.

B.J. Stabler was a four-star recruit, and was generally considered one of the best offensive line prospects in the country (ranked 26th by Scout.com). And, honestly, he has done pretty well, it's obvious the kid has a good deal of talent. Unfortunately, leg injuries have slowed him, and are apparently still slowing him. Either way, though, when he has been healthy, he has started the past two years, and will do so again in 2007.

Nikita Stover was a four-star recruit, generally considered the top wide receiver prospect in Alabama, and in the country (ranked 14th overall by Scout.com). He didn't qualify, and went to junior college, finally arriving at the Capstone for the 2006 season. He showed promise late in the year, despite conditioning problems, and will see a lot of playing time in 2007. Odds are that he will start in 2008.

Brandon Deaderick was a four-star defensive line recruit out of Kentucky. He was highly-touted, by like so many other players he hasn't been able to find a definite position (either end or tackle), and has never played any meaningful snaps. Honestly, I did not hear his name mentioned a single time this Spring. And then he raised some hell on the Strip and was arrested. I assumed that, as I type, he's running his butt off, and probably about to vomit somewhere. That's graphic, I know, but probably nonetheless true.

Mike Ford was a four-star tailback recruit out of Florida, and considered one of the best in the country (18th overall by Scout.com). He didn't qualify initially, went to Hargrave, and didn't qualify the second time around. After that, he ended up at South Florida somehow or another, and he was expected to play this Fall. And then it comes out that he has been arrested for a variety of offenses.

Chris Keys was a four-star safety prospect, and was considered one of the best in the country (7th overall by Scout.com). He was committed to LSU, but left when Nick Saban went to Miami, and jumped ship the Tide. He had a lot of talent, but couldn't stay out of trouble. Finally, Mike Shula -- unable to control him -- kicked him off the team. He's playing football now at a lower level, but I forget where.

Brandon Fanney -- coming out of Hargrave -- was a four-star defensive line recruit. He hasn't seen any meaningful snaps so far, but that may change. He's been moved to the Jack position, but he was involved in the incident on the Strip. Much like Deaderick, it's likely that as I type, he's running his butt off and probably about to vomit at the moment. Again, graphic but true.

So that's it. That is all fifteen of the four and five star recruits that we signed from 2002-2005.

To break it down further:

• One player was a five-star (Pope).

• Fourteen players were four-stars.

• Three of the fifteen never qualified academically (Browder, Felder, and Ford).

• One player was kicked off the team (Keys).

• Three players qualified, but nevertheless never lived up to anywhere near their expectations, for whatever reason (Tatum, Lee, and Scott). All three have since graduated / eligibility expired.

• Two players really lived up to their expectations and did as well as everyone expected they would (McClain and Pope).
  

• Three players qualified, are currently on the team, but unfortunately none of the three have lived up to expectations thus far, nor do they seem destined for any legitimate playing time in 2007 barring some Fall practice surprises (Washington, Fanney, and Deaderick).

• Two players are currently on the roster, showing promise, with two years of eligibility left, and both seemingly are in line to be good, quality football players before they leave after the 2008 season (Stabler and Stover).
  

All told, it's not too good.

And the reader is correct, we have gotten more good players out of two and three star prospects than we have four and five star prospects. With that said, however, I wouldn't read much into that. Yes, more good players emerged from the two and three star prospects, but two and three star prospects also comprised about 80% of our overall classes, so it only makes sense that more of those guys turned out to be good players. After all, they outnumbered the four and five stars at a rate of about 4:1, so that's how it should be.

So it really doesn't say anything bad about the recruiting services, for the most part.

What it does show, however, is the complete lack of highly rated recruits that we have signed. On average, we racked up less than four of the four or five star recruits per year, and that's simply nowhere near enough. As mentioned earlier, roughly 80% of our classes over a four-year stretch was comprised by recruits rated three stars and later. Hell, it's still one month until kick-off, and Nick Saban has already racked up six four star recruits thus far, and honestly we'll probably have at least eight by the end of August. Truth be told, Saban and company will reel in almost as many, if not as many, four and five star recruits in this recruiting class alone as we reeled in, as a whole, in the four-year stretch from 2002-2005.

Moreover, it is also an indication of poor coaching. Never underestimate the importance of good coaching in getting a prospect to realize his full potential, and you have to be brutally honest: the guys we signed from 2002-2005 simply, for the most part, did not get it. Great prospects will often times become poor-to-average players with poor-to-average coaching, and I think that is reflected to a degree here.

Again, it's not really an indicator of poor ratings. The raw number of four and five star recruits is mainly an indictment of terrible recruiting in that stretch, more than anything else. And, fortunately, that latter has drastically changed since Nick Saban stepped off of that airplane in early January.

The rest is largely an indictment of poor coaching. And fortunately, that, too, has drastically changed in the past few months.