Thursday, July 26, 2007

Snap Distribution

A reader asked in a previous post for my opinions on how snaps should be distributed between starters and back-ups, so here goes:

At bottom, how should snaps be distributed between starters and back-ups?

Well, the simple answer is that the proper snap distribution depends on a variety of factors, and the distribution itself changes based on the unique circumstances of situation in question.

To begin with, there are no hard and fast answers to the question. There's just no way you can really run the data and somehow conclude that starters should play x percentage of snaps and that back-ups should play z percentage of snaps. Something like that would require the situation to be very black and white, but in reality it's all one massive gray area.

Generally speaking, though, you would like to give back-ups a good bit of meaningful playing time. Doing so would not only build for the future, but it would also create a more experienced squad with more quality depth, and as we all know, quality depth is largely what wins football games. However, though you would like to do that, the harsh reality is doing so is simply not a feasible option in most cases. Conference games (and all "big" games, for that matter) are generally always close, even for bad teams (look at our 2006 season), and you simply cannot afford to not have your best players on the field the overwhelming majority of the time. The games are just too close and the end result could completely change with just one play, so you must play your best players (i.e. starters) as much as you possibly can.

Beyond that, the snap distribution between the starters and the back-ups should also depend on the disparity of the talent levels between the two groups. If you have great starters and poor back-ups, it only makes sense to give the overwhelming majority of meaningful snaps to the starters; honestly, you may as well play them 'til they drop, because even in that scenario they are still likely your best players. On the other hand, if the talent level between the starters and back-ups is closer (say, Shaud Williams and Santonio Beard, as we saw in 2002) then you should alter your strategy to split the snaps more equally. Doing so limits the odds of one player getting injured, and the lesser physical pounding keeps them fresher, healthier, etc., and overall more productive in the long-run.

A sizable lead, too, can alter the ideal strategy. If you find yourself in an unusual number of blowout games (regardless of which end you are on), the ideal strategy would be to play the back-ups more. If you are blowing a team out (say, for example, like LSU blew out Kentucky 49-0 a year ago), you should bench the starters and play the back-ups. Doing so limits the risk your starters will suffer injuries, and moreover it will also help, albeit slightly, increase experience and quality depth. On the other hand, if you are getting annihilated, you should give the back-ups more time. Just as playing starters when you are ahead by a wide margin is a poor idea, so is playing them when you are behind by a wide margin. By that point, considering it is likely later in the game, a win is impossible, and all you will do by playing starters is stretch the game out and increase the risk of injury for your starters. You may as well give the back-ups some quality snaps to improve your overall team, and shield your starters from potential injuries.

The position of a particular player can also change the snap distribution. At one extreme, the starting quarterback is generally going to play every meaningful snap, as long he remains remotely healthy. At other extremes (generally interior defensive linemen), players rotate almost continuously, with back-ups often getting as many snaps as starters.

At bottom, despite the extreme importance of finding the right snap distribution between starters and back-ups, it's a complicated question with no clear-cut answers. There are a literal ton of factors that could influence the ideal snap distribution strategy, and figuring out the ideal snap distribution strategy in any game is a very complex matter. It's yet another gray area in which good coaching can come into play and make a massive difference in the overall performance of a team.

And finally, to close, never think that proper snap distribution is not important. No, we can't quantify it, and we can't put those numbers in an Excel spreadsheet and come up with an ideal strategy. But nevertheless, it's very important. Never think that just because you can't quantify something into a tangible product that it is not important. Proper snap distribution is just one of many things of that nature that are very important.

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