Bayou Bengals Fighting History

2007 SEC Media Days recently concluded with the media voting the LSU Tigers the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC this season. But the Tigers are very much fighting history. Being tabbed as the favorite to win the SEC has very much been a kiss of death the past decade.

Just look at the past nine seasons.

In 2006, everyone and their brother thought the Auburn Tigers had it locked up. And then the season started, and they finished second in their own division. 2005 had no true favorite (though Tennessee would have likely came closest), for the most part, but the team that did win it, the Georgia Bulldogs, were picked by effectively no one after they lost media darlings David Greene and David Pollack to graduation the year before. Tennessee, who was likely the main favorite, went 5-6, and a purge of their coaching ranks ensued.

In 2004, many expected Georgia to rebound for the SEC title, and some others expected Florida to break through in Zook's third year. As it happened, Auburn came out of nowhere and went 13-0 en route to an SEC championship. In 2003, Auburn was everyone's favorite, but they crashed and burned to a five-loss season in which head coach Tommy Tuberville came this close to getting fired. No one expected LSU to do it, coming off of an 8-5 season in 2002, but they did just that, winning the SEC and a share of the national championship.

In 2002, Tennessee, with Casey Clausen returning, was dubbed by most as the eventual SEC Champions. The Vols imploded amongst team dissension, and the Georgia Bulldogs came out of nowhere to go 13-1, win the SEC, and go on to a victory in the Sugar Bowl over Florida State. In 2001, the Florida Gators were pegged to win the SEC, and possibly the national championship. But the Gators fell to Auburn and Tennessee, and didn't even win the SEC East. LSU, the actual 2001 SEC Champion, shocked everyone by pulling it out. No one even thought they would win it even when they advanced to the SEC Title Game against Tennessee.

In 2000, our beloved Crimson Tide was the unanimous favorite, and uh, yeah, we all know how that one turned out. Florida ended up as the SEC champions, facing little resistance on their way to Atlanta or in Atlanta against Auburn. In 1999, everyone had either Tennessee, Georgia, or Florida as the SEC Champions. As it turned out, Alabama came out of nowhere and beat Florida twice, winning the SEC in a route of the Gators in Atlanta.

In 1998, the Florida Gators were dubbed by most to win the SEC after the departure of Peyton Manning, but surprising Tennessee -- led by Tee Martin -- came out of nowhere and went undefeated, winning the SEC en route to a national championship.

Finally, you have to go all the way back to 1997 until the favorite went on to win the SEC. That year, after Peyton Manning opted to forgo the NFL Draft and return for his senior season. The media picked up on it, and dubbed Tennessee as the SEC Champion. Though the Vols were blown out by Florida early in the year in the Swamp, they made the SEC title game when Florida surprisingly lost to two inferior teams (LSU and Georgia), and narrowly edged out Auburn 30-29 in the SEC Championship Game.

In the nine seasons since the Vols' SEC Championship in 1997, the preseason SEC favorite has combined to go 0-9 in their pursuit of the SEC title. More damning, however, is this fact: Of those nine favorites to win SEC, only one time did anyone remotely close to being considered a favorite has actually advanced to the SEC title game (the 1999 Florida Gators), and even the one team that did came in a year when there was no clear-cut favorite.

To sum up -- and this is something you are probably only going to read here regarding media favorites -- the harsh truth of the matter is that none of the past nine favorites to win the SEC have actually won it, and only one time did a favorite even make it to the SEC Championship game.

The perilous road to a championship doesn't simply end there, however.

It is an almost equally perilous route for those attempting to win the SEC with a first-year starter at quarterback.

Just look at the past eight seasons. In the past eight years, every team that has won the SEC championship has done so with a returning starter at quarterback.

In 2006, Florida won the SEC and later the national championship under the leadership of Chris Leak, a four year starter playing as a senior. In 2005, Georgia won the SEC with D.J. Shockley, who had started several games in his career in Athens, and had generally split playing time with David Greene.

In 2004, Auburn won the SEC with Jason Campbell under center. Campbell was a fifth-year senior who had started nearly his entire career. 2003 saw the LSU Tigers win the SEC with Matt Mauck, who had started the previous year, and who was older than most college quarterbacks (Mauck was 24, due to a minor league baseball career).

In 2002, David Greene led Georgia to its first SEC championship in twenty years in his second full season as a starter. In 2001, Rohan Davey led LSU to the SEC championship as a senior who had started off-and-on his entire career at LSU (he generally split starts from 1999-2000 with Josh Booty). Finally, Alabama won the SEC in 1999 with Andrew Zow in his second full season as a starter.

You have to go all the way back to the 1998 season to find a team that won the SEC with a first-year starter. The Tennessee Volunteers did it that year with Tee Martin, and no one has done it since.

So what does all of it mean?

At bottom, it means that the SEC is an incredibly tough conference with an amazingly high level of parity. No matter how good one team is thought to be, the truth is that the conference is just so strong from top-to-bottom that the odds are very much against even the favorite winning the SEC. And, moreover, if you generally want to have any real chance of winning the SEC, you had better have a quarterback with at least a year of starting experience. Apparently this league is generally just entirely too tough to throw a first-year starter to the wolves and expect a champion to emerge.

As LSU embarks on its 2007 campaign, they will do so as the undisputed SEC favorite, and also with a first-year starter at quarterback: Matt Flynn. If the Tigers can win the SEC this season, they will not only have out-fought eleven opponents in a brutally tough conference, but they will have out-fought history as well.